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Chicago - A majority of American adults - 54% - are bullish on the US stock market for 2017 and almost four in 10 say they anticipate being in a better financial situation during the upcoming year than they are now.
The latest Bloomberg National Poll shows growing optimism about the US economy following the election of billionaire businessman Donald Trump as president, with positive feelings about the nation’s financial direction among his supporters.
“It seems like it will be more business-friendly,” said Anna Wheelahan, 49, a data entry worker for a golf equipment company who voted for Trump and lives in Mission Viejo, California. “People will feel more confident spending their dollars because they will feel safer about their jobs.”
Asked about their 2017 outlook, 38% say they expect a better financial year compared with 14% who say they’ll be worse off and 45% who say their personal fortunes will remain about the same. That’s higher than in December 2012, following President Barack Obama’s re-election, when 31% said they were more optimistic for the following year.
“For the past eight years, questions about how the economy is doing have been driven by partisan views,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey. “Republicans were all but in denial about job growth and improvement in the stock market. It will be interesting to see if Hillary Clinton supporters and Democrats follow suit.”
Americans anticipating higher household income outnumbered those expecting a decline - 39% to 10% - while a plurality of 45% say they expect their situation to be unchanged. The labour market, where the 4.6% unemployment rate reflects a 0.4 percentage point drop during the past year, remains a worry even amid job gains.
Unemployment and jobs is the top issue picked by Americans when presented with seven choices. More than a quarter – 26% – selected it as their biggest concern, followed by health care at 20% and terrorism at 15%.
The proportion of poll participants picking jobs and the economy as their top issue was as high as 50% in December 2010, as the nation’s economy struggled to bounce back from the recession.
Read the poll questions and methodology here.
Asked whether the stock market will be higher or lower at the end of 2017 than it is now, 54% said higher, 24% said lower, nine percent said about the same and 12% weren’t sure.
“It’s going to have an uptick for the next year,” said Scott Carlson, 54, a health insurance company team manager who lives in Tampa, Florida. “I don’t know if it will last beyond that, but that’s my general feeling.”
It should be noted, Selzer said, that most poll participants aren’t stock experts.
“We’re asking them whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about the market,” she said. “They are giving us a sense of their mood. It’s a snapshot in time of how they feel today.”
In the past decade, there have been at least a couple instances where a year of gains in the US stock market followed a December or early January poll where a sizable portion of Americans predicted equities would be up a year later.
In a January 2014 Gallup Poll, 35% said stocks would be higher a year later, while 39% said about the same and 21% said lower. The S&P 500 Index moved up 11.4% in 2014.
A December 2009 Gallup Poll had 52% saying they expected the market would be higher a year later, while 32% said lower and 14% said about the same. In 2010, the S&P 500 Index gained 12.8%.
Market prospects
The bullishness extends across all levels of income, with 53% of those in the lowest income group - those having annual household incomes before taxes of less than $50 000 - saying they are optimistic; that’s about even to the 49% of the top income group - $100 000 or more - saying the market will end 2017 higher than it is now.
More than three-quarters of those who voted for Trump say US equities will be at higher levels at the end of 2017, while only about a third of those who voted for Clinton think so.
Men are more bullish about the market’s prospects than women, 62% to 47%, as are those without college degrees as compared to those with degrees, 57% to 47%.
Post-election run-ups in the US stock market following presidential elections aren’t unusual. The S&P 500 Index has climbed almost 4.8% since Trump’s surprise November 8 win.
Trump’s supporters are much more likely to say that they expect their 2017 to be better financially than Clinton supporters, 55% to 25%.
Ebbing anxiety
More than seven years after the end of the most punishing recession since the 1930s, an era of anxiety appears to be ebbing. By 25% to 10%, poll respondents say they expect their job security to improve rather than worsen, while the remainder either foresee no change or do not have a job. Employers boosted payrolls by 178 000 people in November, as the unemployment rate tumbled to a nine-year low.
Many more poll respondents were more optimistic than pessimistic about the value of their home improving in 2017, 35% to 8%. That’s up from a 20% to 20% split at the same time in 2012.
On retirement security, 35% say they will be better off next year and 13% worse, compared to 19% better and 21% worse four years ago. For overall financial security, 38% say better and 12% worse, compared to 25% better and 21% worse in 2012.
American institutions
The survey also looked at American institutions, including small businesses, corporate executives, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Wall Street banks, Congress, the White House, the Federal Reserve, insurance companies and the national news media.
The Federal Reserve is viewed favourably by 50% and unfavorably by 26%, while 24% are unsure. That’s up from 42% favourable when the poll last tested it as an institution in March 2010.
The survey shows Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen isn’t nearly as well-known as national politicians. She’s viewed positively by 24% and negatively by 19%, while 57% say they don’t have an opinion on her.
Small business is viewed favourably by 85%. Corporate executives and Wall Street banks don’t do nearly as well, with favourable numbers of just 30% and 26%, respectively.
Insurance companies and the national media have about the same proportion of Americans who view them favourably, 34% and 35%.
The FBI is viewed favorably by 58%. That includes 55% of Clinton supporters, even though some of her backers have expressed frustration with how the agency handled the timing of pre-election announcements about an investigation into her use of a private e-mail server when she was secretary of state.
Energy policy
By a two-to-one margin, the poll shows American adults think it’s more important for the country’s energy policy to focus on renewable sources than on the coal and natural gas industries.
Majorities of Trump voters say fossil fuels are more important, while almost nine in 10 Clinton voters pick renewable policy as more pressing.
Almost half, 46%, see climate change as a major threat, unchanged from when the poll asked in June 2014. Three-quarters of Clinton voters view it as a major danger, while 21% of Trump supporters do.
Almost two-thirds - 64% - think the US media has fallen off track and is no longer valuable in its traditional role of checking the powers of the three branches of federal government. Among Trump supporters, 82% hold that view, while 48% of Clinton backers do.
The poll of 999 American adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, higher among subgroups. It was conducted December 2 to December 5 by Iowa-based Selzer & Co.
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