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Emerging assets halt five-day gain as oil falls

Bangkok - Emerging-market assets halted a five-day gain as a slide in oil prices sapped demand for higher-yielding assets.

A gauge of developing-nation shares dropped from the highest level in a year, led by losses in Slovenia, Estonia and the Philippines. 

Malaysia’s ringgit fell the most among emerging-nation currencies as the country derives 20% of its revenue from energy-related sources. The Korean won weakened as the central bank governor said there was still room to adjust policy after keeping interest rates on hold.

“Renewed worries about the oil-price drop should weigh significantly on developing countries’ assets as most of their economies depend on energy and commodity exports for recovery,” said Komsorn Prakobphol, a senior investment strategist in Bangkok at Tisco Financial Group Pcl, whose mutual-fund unit manages about $5bn.

“We advise investors to take some profit on their equity holdings. Valuations are too high and it’s a good opportunity to lock in some profit.”

Developing-nation assets have been largely tied to the fortunes of oil this year as the commodity is seen as a gauge of the outlook for global growth. The rally in emerging assets from their lows in January is coming under increasing threat as crude prices have declined since the middle on June on concern there is a global oversupply.

Stocks

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of shares fell 0.2% as of 09:52 after rising 4% during the previous five days. The gauge closed Wednesday at the highest level since July 2015.

Equity indexes declined 1% in both Slovenia and Estonia, and 0.9% in the Philippines.

Taiwan’s  Taiex fell 0.8% on concern the local dollar’s recent gains will weigh on electronics exports. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing  was the biggest drag on the equity benchmark after the index and currency climbed to one-year highs on Wednesday.

"It’s normal for the market to take a break after the Taiex closed at around 9,200 yesterday, which is an important psychological level," said Ben Lin, a money manager at Uni-President Assets Management in Taipei. "Over the past few days, the Taiwan dollar has appreciated more, so people will start to expect that to affect third-quarter earnings for electronics companies."

Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong rose for a sixth day as speculation the start date of an exchange trading link with Shenzhen will soon be announced boosted banks and brokerages. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 1.2%.

Currencies

The ringgit fell the most in a week as Brent crude extended losses after tumbling 2.1% on Wednesday when US stockpiles unexpectedly expanded. Malaysia loses 450 million ringgit in annual income for every $1 decline in oil, Prime Minister Najib Razak said in April.

Malaysia’s currency dropped 0.6% to 4.013 per dollar.

The won weakened after the Bank of Korea held its key rate at a record-low 1.25% and Governor Lee Ju Yeol said the central bank still had room to adjust policy.

The currency dropped 0.5% to 1 099.72 per dollar after appreciating to 1 091.07 on Wednesday, the strongest level since May 2015.

“Governor Lee’s comment that the BOK still has policy room reaffirmed its accommodative stance and the possibility of a rate cut in the near future,” said Chung Sung Yoon, a currency analyst at Hyundai Futures in Seoul.

“I expect the won to rise to around 1 080 this month though, and the longer term direction will probably be determined by the policy stance of global central banks, particularly the US and the Bank of Korea."

The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index slipped 0.2%, trimming this month’s advance to 1.5%.

Not everyone is bearish.

“Lower oil prices and possibly some lightening of short US dollar positions ahead of the US retail sales data tomorrow, seems to be weighing on Asian currencies,” said Divya Devesh, a foreign-exchange strategist at Standard Chartered in Singapore.

“In our view, the backdrop in the short-term is still quite supportive for further gains for Asian currencies given ample global liquidity and still low probability of a Fed rate hike this year.”


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