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London - The eurozone debt crisis is a story that just will not go away, a drip-drip water torture that investors and financial markets cannot ignore.
So while investors may want to focus in the coming week on issues as diverse as UK interest rates, highly volatile global commodity prices and US capital flows, they are likely instead to find Europe's debt conundrum forcibly distracting them.
The week brings with it a series of meetings that will be dominated by the question of Greek bond restructuring and the overall problem of out-of-control debt in eurozone economies including Ireland and Portugal.
Eurozone finance ministers meet on Monday before a gathering of the full European Union contingent on Tuesday.
These are followed a day later by an economic forum attended by a gaggle of the debt saga's key players - including European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, International Monetary Fund (MD) Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
Perhaps most intriguing, European Council President Herman van Rompuy will be on a four-day visit to China, whose support in buying Spanish and Portuguese bonds has been crucial in shoring up debt markets.
It has even prompted a public thank you.
"The EU gratefully acknowledges continued Chinese involvement in European sovereign bond markets during the recent and quite turbulent period," EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton told the China Daily.
Continued Chinese diversification of its huge foreign exchange reserves from the dollar into euros (and other currencies) will not only affect the eurozone bond market, but stands to create a new pricing regime for many assets.
Marooned
It is an odds-on bet that the crisis - which essentially comes down to near-bankrupt countries sharing a currency with exporting giants like Germany - will not be solved at any of these meetings.
It is in the nature of water torture, after all, that the drip-drip continues.
But the whole process of trying to bring Greek, Irish, Portuguese and other debt under control is a slow one, involving long-term austerity programmes, guarantees that need tweaking from time to time and the agreement of 17 euro members, all 27 EU members and some outsiders like the IMF.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the current debate over whether Greece should restructure its debt - either through extending maturities, lowering promised interest rates on bonds, or just reneging on the repayment of the full amount borrowed.
A Reuters poll in the past week showed the vast majority of fund managers and economists believe Greece will restructure, although very few expect it soon.
European politicians, in the meantime, often seem to be saying one thing publicly and briefing something else privately.
The result is that markets are haunted by what rattles them most - uncertainty.
"It almost seems as if it needs a disaster before the policy makers take a decision," said Sanjay Joshi, portfolio manager at London & Capital. "It makes it extremely difficult for the market to get a clean slate and move forwards."
Obscured by clouds
Market reaction to the crisis so far has been relatively contained to the debt of a few weak economies on the eurozone's periphery and the odd euro wobble.
This is possibly because the core eurozone economies have been doing so well - Friday's data showed roaring performances by Germany and France in the first quarter.
But investors argue that the uncertainty does add to the strength of other brakes on investor sentiment.
The latter include concerns about central banks shifting from plentiful-money policies towards higher interest rates.
Minutes from the Bank of England's last meeting should give some notion in the coming week of how close Britain is to following the European Central Bank in tightening.
US TIC data for March - figures for capital in- and outflows - will also be released, giving a new snapshot of the demand from China and others for US Treasuries and other paper.
With the Federal Reserve set to end its own quantitative easing (QE) bond buying in late June, the data may be even more pertinent than usual for what it says about demand after QE disappears.
Investors will also be keeping an eye on commodity prices, following recent bursts of volatility, at least partly brought on by efforts in China to cool its economy.
Commodity prices have fallen sharply twice so far this month, followed by a rebound - a sign that what had been a one-way bet may no longer be one.
So while investors may want to focus in the coming week on issues as diverse as UK interest rates, highly volatile global commodity prices and US capital flows, they are likely instead to find Europe's debt conundrum forcibly distracting them.
The week brings with it a series of meetings that will be dominated by the question of Greek bond restructuring and the overall problem of out-of-control debt in eurozone economies including Ireland and Portugal.
Eurozone finance ministers meet on Monday before a gathering of the full European Union contingent on Tuesday.
These are followed a day later by an economic forum attended by a gaggle of the debt saga's key players - including European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, International Monetary Fund (MD) Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
Perhaps most intriguing, European Council President Herman van Rompuy will be on a four-day visit to China, whose support in buying Spanish and Portuguese bonds has been crucial in shoring up debt markets.
It has even prompted a public thank you.
"The EU gratefully acknowledges continued Chinese involvement in European sovereign bond markets during the recent and quite turbulent period," EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton told the China Daily.
Continued Chinese diversification of its huge foreign exchange reserves from the dollar into euros (and other currencies) will not only affect the eurozone bond market, but stands to create a new pricing regime for many assets.
Marooned
It is an odds-on bet that the crisis - which essentially comes down to near-bankrupt countries sharing a currency with exporting giants like Germany - will not be solved at any of these meetings.
It is in the nature of water torture, after all, that the drip-drip continues.
But the whole process of trying to bring Greek, Irish, Portuguese and other debt under control is a slow one, involving long-term austerity programmes, guarantees that need tweaking from time to time and the agreement of 17 euro members, all 27 EU members and some outsiders like the IMF.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the current debate over whether Greece should restructure its debt - either through extending maturities, lowering promised interest rates on bonds, or just reneging on the repayment of the full amount borrowed.
A Reuters poll in the past week showed the vast majority of fund managers and economists believe Greece will restructure, although very few expect it soon.
European politicians, in the meantime, often seem to be saying one thing publicly and briefing something else privately.
The result is that markets are haunted by what rattles them most - uncertainty.
"It almost seems as if it needs a disaster before the policy makers take a decision," said Sanjay Joshi, portfolio manager at London & Capital. "It makes it extremely difficult for the market to get a clean slate and move forwards."
Obscured by clouds
Market reaction to the crisis so far has been relatively contained to the debt of a few weak economies on the eurozone's periphery and the odd euro wobble.
This is possibly because the core eurozone economies have been doing so well - Friday's data showed roaring performances by Germany and France in the first quarter.
But investors argue that the uncertainty does add to the strength of other brakes on investor sentiment.
The latter include concerns about central banks shifting from plentiful-money policies towards higher interest rates.
Minutes from the Bank of England's last meeting should give some notion in the coming week of how close Britain is to following the European Central Bank in tightening.
US TIC data for March - figures for capital in- and outflows - will also be released, giving a new snapshot of the demand from China and others for US Treasuries and other paper.
With the Federal Reserve set to end its own quantitative easing (QE) bond buying in late June, the data may be even more pertinent than usual for what it says about demand after QE disappears.
Investors will also be keeping an eye on commodity prices, following recent bursts of volatility, at least partly brought on by efforts in China to cool its economy.
Commodity prices have fallen sharply twice so far this month, followed by a rebound - a sign that what had been a one-way bet may no longer be one.
