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JSE in for another bumpy ride

Port Elizabeth - While the market continued its stronger trend that became evident a week ago, the main characteristic during the last week was extremely high volatility.

From Monday right through to Friday, shares reflected the underlying uncertainty in the market with huge intra-day swings.

The tradable JSE Top-40 index indicated to what extend market participants changed their views from good to bad and back again.

For instance, the index would start the day in excess of 300 points in the red and a bit of good news would see share prices firm with the index increasing by 1% within minutes.

Then a bit of bad news would see the index fall 1% in a matter of minutes - to be followed by another, equally violent surge and another decline. Every day this week saw seven or eight swings such as these due to conflicting news reports.

The market improved when Anglo American [JSE:AGL] announced results that showed the mining group is achieving its goal of improving operations, but every bit of news about the increasingly violent strike on platinum mines sent shares plummeting.

Woolworths [JSE:WHL] delighted investors with better-than-expected results for the six months to December, but JD Group [JSE:JDG] disappointed by announcing it had to write off so much bad debt and make provision for more bad debt that it wiped out its hard-earned profit in the last six months.

Management also said it has to ask shareholders for more money (up to R1.5bn) to help them pay for the folly. Holding company Steinhoff [JSE:SHF] will underwrite the rights issue.

Economic figures added to conflicting views about the direction of the market. Statistics South Africa said unemployment decreased and manufacturing output rose, but also announced that retail sales grew by a paltry 3.5% in December compared to 4.4% in November. This nevertheless bettered most expectations.

The week ahead

We can expect an equally bumpy ride this week. But while the market ended comfortably higher after inching up every day last week, it could be more biased to the downside in the coming week.

International markets are looking vulnerable and might respond to any negative news in the US Fereral Reserve's monetary announcement on Wednesday.

The market will get full details on JD Group's bad results, while interim results from Northam Platinum [JSE:NHM] will show how labour strife in the platinum belt is affecting companies.

Hopefully results from BHP Billiton [JSE:BIL] on Tuesday will make for good reading.

Cool-headed portfolio managers and speculators with strong convictions will enjoy this week, while long-term investors should rather read Dilbert's daily business antics or the sport pages.

 - Fin24

*After chasing money on the JSE for 15 years, Adriaan Kruger is now living a relaxed lifestyle in Wilderness and lectures economics part-time at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University.


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Rand - Dollar
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