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JSE eyes growth figures for direction

Johannesburg - Analysts predicted a modest recovery on the JSE on Monday as the market is oversold after last week’s losses, but nothing came off it in the first half of the trading day.

By midday on Monday, all the major indices were virtually unchanged as investors are apparently waiting for South Africa’s latest growth figures to be announced on Tuesday. This will give an indication if the economy is in a recession.

By midday the All-share index was only 0.13% lower on 51 129 points, while the Top 40-index lost 0.14% to 45 916 points. The Financial index was only 0.10% lower, while the Resources index lost only 0.12% and the Industrial index 0.15%.

Most of the attention on Monday morning was on a speech by Janet Yellen, chairperson of the Federal Reserve, on Friday at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Her comments were interpreted differently by different analysts, but according to the technical research team of Imara SP Reid, the majority of investors concluded that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current policy position with no surprises in terms of the trajectory for short-term interest rates.

Yellen said even if unemployment has fallen more quickly than expected to 6.2%, there remains "considerable uncertainty about the level of employment" and that could put a damper on inflation.

She did acknowledge however that there are more commentators calling for higher interest rates and that was interpreted by some commentators as a sign that she might be thinking about it.

Any sign that interest rates may stay low for longer should be positive for developing markets including the JSE, but it did not have any influence this morning.

Imara SP Reid said the JSE’s performance the last few days was disappointing as the losses were overdone. The team therefore expected a modest improvement on Monday as the index remain oversold, but it did not happen.

The team did however warn that the sustainability of any advances in the near future continues to be questionable given the macro-economic backdrop.

However, some shares still reached new 52-week highs on Monday morning, including the short term insurer Santam [JSE:STN] which traded 1.02% higher at a new high of R227.30.

Santam’s share price gained 7.6% the past week and is now 21.4% higher for the past twelve months after a slow start in the first part of the year. The improvement over the past six months is 36.4%.

By midday Santam’s holding company Sanlam [JSE:SLM] was 0.13% softer on R63.92, but earlier on Monday morning the share reached a new intraday high of R64.69. Sanlam’s share price is now 34.56% higher than a year ago.

Sun International [JSE:SUI], which traded at new highs last week, also set a new intraday high on Monday, but by midday the share price lost 1.51% to R115.72 after the company announced an 11% drop in operating profit for the year till June, after revenue only increased by 5%.

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