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JSE: More record highs unlikely

Port Elizabeth - Major indices on the JSE chalked up another week of strong gains and new records after a somewhat uncertain start on Monday and Tuesday - when the world nervously watched events surrounding the US government's financial worries.

The respite on Wednesday afternoon ignited a relief rally, which turned into a strong run on the JSE. The Top-40 and All Share index reached a new record high of Friday.

Strong gains in the usual dozen large international shares was probably the result of renewed buying by foreign investors.

During the previous week, foreigners were net sellers of some R4.9bn worth of shares when international uncertainty reduced their appetite for riskier investments, i.e. shares in our large companies which still have large SA business and need to face the local economic and political challenges.

This week, the postponement of the US debt crisis was interpreted that the host has agreed that the party can continue for another few hours and the music got turned up again.

The increase in SA retail sales in August (3% year-on-year) boosted retail shares. Woollies [JSE:WHL], Mr Price [JSE:MPC], Truworths [JSE:TRU], PicknPay [JSE:PIK] and Shoprite [JSE:SHP] all ended the week on a high note.

Mining and commodity shares showed solid gains when the global economy did not grind to a halt this week, with Anglo American [JSE:ANG], BHP Billiton [JSE:BIL] and Sasol [JSE: SOL] attracting buyers.

Food and beverage shares, the financial sector and industrial (with the notable exception of the construction and material counters) all ended the week quite strong.

The week ahead

The gold price and gold shares will continue to bring excitement - read as quick profits and large losses - as the gold price seemed to have entered a period of high volatility.

Gold pundits continue to talk about a financial meltdown, while sellers seem to want to get out whenever the price jumps a bit. Investors in gold shares and speculators in leveraged gold share derivatives are caught in between to profit or fade.

The first gold producer to publish quarterly results is DRDGold [JSE:DUR], while BHP Billiton will give its quarterly production update on Tuesday.

Amplats [JSE:AMS] and cellular company MTN [JSE:MTN] will also release quarterly updates.
 
StatsSA will announce inflation figures for September, of which the Reserve Bank has already warned that it will be above the higher end of its inflation target of 6%.

More record highs seem unlikely, but the old market adage comes to mind: Bears have predicted the last four stock market crashes 87 times.

- Fin24

*After chasing money on the JSE for 15 years, Adriaan Kruger is now living a relaxed lifestyle in Wilderness and lectures economics part-time at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University. Views expressed are his own.

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Rand - Dollar
19.29
-0.7%
Rand - Pound
23.87
-1.1%
Rand - Euro
20.58
-1.2%
Rand - Aus dollar
12.38
-1.1%
Rand - Yen
0.12
-1.2%
Platinum
943.50
+0.0%
Palladium
1,034.50
-0.1%
Gold
2,391.84
+0.0%
Silver
28.68
+0.0%
Brent Crude
87.29
+0.2%
Top 40
67,314
+0.2%
All Share
73,364
+0.1%
Resource 10
63,285
-0.0%
Industrial 25
98,701
+0.3%
Financial 15
15,499
+0.1%
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