Bangalore - Emerging market equities would rally by year-end after a short-term volatility caused by the European debt crisis, said Citigroup, which expects significant cuts to growth outlook for emerging Europe countries and South Africa.
In its global emerging markets strategy report, Citigroup said gross domestic product growth in emerging markets would remain strong at about 5.5% to 6% this year and next.
No central bank in its emerging market coverage would raise interest rates this year, it said in an October 6-dated note.
“Unless the world is about to relapse into a 2008-9 style recession or the euro is set to completely collapse, the long-term outlook for emerging markets equities looks positive,” Citigroup said.
The brokerage said it expects a double-dip recession in the euro area, but not in the United States, where it expects the economy to bounce back with a growth range of 1.5% to 2% through end of 2012.
Citigroup is underweight on Russia, South Africa and Mexico as a result of the global financial turmoil and its impact on local business sentiment.
The brokerage is overweight on China, Korea, Malaysia, Turkey and Chile, and upgraded India to neutral along with Brazil and Taiwan.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which fell to a two-year low of $824.39 on October 4, was up 2% in Friday morning trade.