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Rand back at pre-holiday levels after volatile Brexit trade

Cape Town - The rand stabilised to pre-holiday levels on Friday after a volatile session saw the unit touch R15.53/$ on Thursday.

South Africa celebrated Youth Day on Thursday.

Andre Botha, currency dealer at TreasuryOne, said the expected volatility from the US Federal Reserve statement failed to materialise as the expected dovish tone from chair Janet Yellen was already priced into the market.

"The real volatility came yesterday [Thursday], when the rand ran very quickly to R15.53 in the wake of new Brexit polls showing that the race will be tight next week whether Britain will leave the EU or not."

Adding to the volatility was the Japanese central bank's decision not change its monetary policy by adding more stimulus.

"This sent everything into a tail spin, with the yen touching 103.58 against the USD, while the GBP touched 1.4010," said Adam Phillips of Unkhulu Consulting.

The tragic shooting of Labour MP Jo Cox, who was a big supporter for staying in the European Union, halted the rand momentum and backed the pound.

"Campaigning stopped immediately and this helped the GBP to recover. As yet it is not known whether this was a localised event or not, but for the moment the GBP is off the bottom and trading back around the 1.4250 level," said Phillips.

Botha said the expected response following the senseless crime is for sentiment to shift towards Britain remaining in the EU.

"This is only the start of the volatility of the Brexit and this can only get more volatile as we head into next week. The rand will react on any news out of Britain, so keep an eye out of developments as this will influence the direction,” he said.

At 08:52 on Friday the rand was trading at R15.31/$ from Wednesday's close of R15.32. The local unit was trading at R21.82 and R17.23 against the pound and euro respectively.

"It should be a sanguine day after what happened yesterday. I think the action will clearly warm up again on Monday, with the referendum and Yellen's congressional testimony being the main issues next week.

"I doubt that the ZAR along with other EM currencies can strengthen that much today. Until the vote next Thursday, all currencies will be on tenterhooks and it's sure to be volatile and nervous.

"The 'short' position of traders and corporates in the GBP will also take centre stage next week and be a major talking point," said Phillips.


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18.94
-0.2%
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23.91
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