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Cape Town – While the rand’s early week blues are over, it is still a matter of wait-and-see until Friday, when the US Federal Reserve will announce an interest rate decision.
That is according to RMB analyst John Cairns on Tuesday, as the rand strengthened 0.2% to R13.47 by 08:30, an improved performance from its peak of R13.65 on Monday.
“The early week blues for the rand are over,” he said. “The USD/ZAR hit a peak of 13.65 and has since eased off in line with the dollar and global risk sentiment. The immediate bias is slightly downward but the bigger picture is unexciting, range-bound, wait-and-see trade until Friday.”
Brent dropped to $48.60, which was rand positive.
“A lower oil price shows that inflation won't rise and supports the current global accommodative monetary policy that we are seeing,” said Umkhulu Consulting’s Adam Phillips on Tuesday. “This has helped pull the rand back to 13.52 from yesterday's high of 13.60.
“The feeling is that when (US Fed chairperson Janet) Yellen speaks on Friday, she will mention longer-term policies rather than quick rate hikes,” he said. “While the employment statistics are good, I am sure she is concerned by the inflation numbers.
“While Yellen's speech will be the key event this week, I think there is a realisation that Fed members who have spoken already this week may be part of a game being played by the Fed with the market,” he said. “The market does not like games and tends to punish currencies if they are steered the wrong way.”
Cairns said the highlights of Tuesday’s data calendar are the global purchasing managers' index figures. “Japan’s data this morning showed the first rise in six months. Eurozone data is due mid-morning.
“The French, Italian and German leaders met yesterday to promote the EU and talk positively that it will move forward without the UK,” said Phillips. “However, I would be surprised by a good PMI number given that the UK released a poor one recently.
“I have talked about a range recently of 13.20 to 13.50 and this might have shifted to 13.35 to 13.70,” he said. “If they can push the rand through 13.50, I think 13.47 will see some reversals of short-term longs, but there has been little follow through in equity markets this am, so the short term range should be 13.48 to 13.58.”
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