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Rangy rand keeps tabs on euro

Mar 18 2010 09:34

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Johannesburg - The rand was range-bound in the morning session on Thursday, but eyeing a softer euro following news that Greece may seek help from the International Monetary Fund.

At 08:57 the rand was bid at R7.3146 to the dollar from R7.3035 at its previous close. It was bid at R10.0075 to the euro from its previous close of R10.0266 and was at R11.1820 against the sterling from R11.1700.

The euro was bid at $1.3681 from $1.3735 previously.

A local trader said: "The rand is in a range of R7.28-R7.34 against the dollar however, the euro has come off yesterday's levels following comments on Greece during Asian trade.

"If the euro loses further ground it could spark rand weakness through R7.36 against the dollar," he said.

Dow Jones Newswires reported the euro fell against the dollar and yen in Asia on Thursday as news that Greece may seek help from the International Monetary Fund caused currency players to offload the single currency.

Dealers said the downward pressure on the currency would continue for now because many players had bought the euro on views that Greece's fiscal problems would be solved without the need for stringent fiscal and monetary policy measures.

Earlier in Asian trading, falling Tokyo stock prices caused foreign hedge funds, Japanese institutional investors and interbank dealers to sell the euro, traders said.

But the pace of the selling accelerated as news broke that Greek may seek financial help from the International Monetary Fund over the April 2-4 Easter weekend due to little hope for aid from the European Union.

US economic data

A senior Greek official told Dow Jones Newswires that the prospect of help from the European Union "doesn't look good" and that IMF help would be a prominent scenario if EU help is not forthcoming.

The euro fell by half a cent and by seven-tenths of a yen, to lows of $1.3670 and ¥123.25 respectively after the news at around 04:55 GMT. The single currency was at $1.3737 and at ¥124.01 late on Wednesday in New York.

Dealers said the European unit could keep falling to $1.3600 and ¥122.50 later in the global day.

"If the IMF plays a major role in the Greek rescue, it will likely require the country to take very stringent steps," said Mitsuru Sahara, senior dealer at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. "This would drag down the Greek economy more, at least temporarily, than (if it had the) EU's help, pushing the euro lower."

Still, dealers said that US economic data could provide some support for the euro over the coming week if the data come in better than expected, helping to push Wall Street and other share markets higher and enabling players to increase holdings of riskier units such as the single currency.

The data include consumer price index for February and weekly jobless claims, both due at 12:30 GMT on Thursday. February existing home sales on Tuesday and durable goods on Wednesday are also on players' watch lists.

Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires said February CPI may rise to 0.1% compared with a 0.2% gain in January. US jobless claims are likely to have increased by 455 000 last week, compared with a 462 000 rise two weeks before.

Elsewhere, the dollar stood at ¥90.18 as of 06:00 GMT, slightly down from its New York level of ¥90.25 on Wednesday. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the US currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 79.799 from 79.726.

The US unit may remain top-heavy around ¥91.00 next week, dealers said, as expectations recede that the Federal Reserve will likely hike its policy rate anytime soon, leaving players reluctant to buy the dollar aggressively, while Japanese exporters' sell-orders look heavy above yen;91.00 levels.

- I-Net Bridge

 
 
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