Johannesburg - A softer South African rand, like many other currencies, was volatile in the morning session on Friday amid the uncertainty in Dubai.
The big test still awaits the local currency when the Dow opens later today, following Thanksgiving holiday in the US, a trader noted.
Yesterday Dubai government-owned investment company Dubai World, which has almost $60bn worth of liabilities, asked creditors to postpone its forthcoming payments for six months.
At 08:51 the rand was bid at 7.5450 to the dollar from 7.4866 at its previous close. It was bid at 11.2665 to the euro from its previous close of 11.2327 and was at 12.3832 against sterling from 12.3578.
The euro was bid at $1.4934 from $1.5007 overnight.
A local trader said: "Trade is likely to be volatile today following uncertainty in Dubai. The big test will come when the Dow opens later, having been closed for a holiday yesterday. Dow futures don't look very promising, but let's wait and see.
"The rand has actually fared pretty well in comparison to other currencies, but we are looking at 7.62 against the dollar, and then 7.70 after that."
RMB analysts John Cairns and Nema Ramkhelawan in a morning report noted that markets had been left in turmoil after the Dubai World debt restructuring, with widely disparate and erratic moves.
"Normally the reaction to such negative news is a knee-jerk move that often just fades away. The problem though is that the all-important New York markets haven't yet reacted given that they were closed yesterday.
"Wall Street is expected to open 2% lower but it might well have other ideas. The problem also in trying to fade the spike is that the rand's reaction has been relatively muted," the analysts said.
"Look for volatile trading on the rand today. This was mostly concentrated in dollar/rand yesterday but we could see fall-out in the crosses today. Direction is far from clear but while we said yesterday that we will almost certainly end the week at the bottom of the 7.32/35-7.62 range, it now seems more likely that we will be closer to (and, if anything, actually above) the top," RMB said.
"Data risk is limited today. In fact, we have come through the week with local GDP, CPI and PPI failing to change much on the ZAR or in terms of interest rate expectations," Cairns and Ramkhelawan concluded.
Dow Jones Newswires reported that the dollar plunged below ¥85.00 in Asia on Friday to a fresh 14-year low, as investors piled into the yen on the view it offers the safest haven amid falling Asian share prices and concerns over global banks' exposure to Dubai debt.
The dollar later rebounded somewhat, helped by a sterner warning from Japan's finance minister about the yen's sharp moves, but traders said market sentiment toward the greenback remains starkly bearish.
Exacerbating the dollar's troubles against the yen were worries over global banks' exposure to the debt problems of a real-estate subsidiary of Dubai's state-run Dubai World, dealers said.
Standard & Poor's rating agency overnight put Dubai's four major banks on credit watch, heightening concern over any European and US exposure to the problems.
That led many investors to look "to cut exposure to risk assets" such as the euro, with the safe-haven yen benefiting most", said Minoru Shioiri, chief manager of forex trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.
The euro would likely stick to a $1.4950-$1.5050 into the weekend, sandwiched between the Dubai debt concerns and "the broader trend of dollar weakness," said Mitsubishi UFJ's Shioiri.
- I-Net Bridge