Johannesburg - The rand was off its best levels in early trade on Tuesday amid a softer euro, with little fresh news on the international front as the US and UK markets were closed on Monday.
At 08:30 the rand was bid at R8.3000 to the dollar from an overnight close of R8.2356. It was bid at R11.5773 to the euro from a previous R11.5281 and at 13.1849 against sterling from R13.1155.
The euro was bid at $1.3962 from $1.4011 overnight.
RMB analyst John Cairns said in his morning report that the proposed deal between telecoms company MTN and India's Bharti could be rand positive.
The companies announced on Monday that they are reviving a $23bn deal, negotiations for which were aborted a year ago.
"It appears that the proposed Bharti-MTN deal could generate a net $4bn inflow into South Africa if it goes ahead. This is a huge amount, especially as it comes after the $2.2bn Vodacom deal and a net $0.9bn from the government's offshore bond issue ($1.5bn issued less $0.6bn maturing)," said Cairns.
"These flows will fund almost half the current account deficit this year implying scope for continued rand strength in the short term. In fact, the flows are so large that the Sarb will now have increased control of the rand through deciding how much, if anything, to absorb into reserves," he added.
But he cautioned "before we count our chickens, we must realise that the deal is far from done. Presumably Bharti and MTN have resolved the issues over control that prohibited a deal this time last year and they have until 31 July to sort out any differences."
Local data takes centre stage later this morning with the release of Q1 2009 GDP data, kicking off a busy data week.
A recession in South Africa is expected to be confirmed via a GDP growth rate of -3.9% quarter-on- quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annualised (saa) from -1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, according to a consensus of 10 leading economists by I-Net Bridge.
The third quarter GDP last year was the 40th consecutive quarter of positive growth since 1998, but this came tumbling down in the fourth quarter as the first decline in a decade was registered. GDP a year ago was +1.7%.
The range of forecasts for the current survey was from -0.7% q/q to -5.2%.
Statistics South Africa will release the GDP growth figures at 11:30.
Cairns puts the rand's range for the day at R8.25-R8.45.
Dow Jones Newswires reports the euro is lower with some US dollar bids before a scheduled US Treasury sale of two-year notes on Tuesday.
"(Risk) aversion has increased, which has allowed the (dollar) a little breathing room from its extensive weakness over the last several weeks," said a report from Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.
Traders paused in the sharp selling of the dollar last week, which was prompted in part by worries about the longer-term sustainability of the US's triple-AAA credit rating.
"I think people are trying to figure out, after last week, whether or not that was the signal the (US dollar) is headed lower," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
"Right now, it's not clear," he said.
- I-Net Bridge