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Rand neutral amid PMI data flurry

Sep 01 2010 12:16 I-Net Bridge

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Johannesburg - The rand was neutral in midday play on Wednesday, barely off its overnight levels amid a spate of PMI data from around the globe.

A local dealer said that the local currency would continue to track euro progress ahead of data out of the US later today.

At 11:35 local time the rand was bid at R7.3658 to the dollar from R7.3700 at the previous close. It was bid at R9.4177 to the euro from R9.3506 before and at R11.3082 against sterling from R11.3072 at its previous close.

The euro was bid at $1.2791 from $1.2685 overnight.

A local dealer said: "The rand is neutral at the moment, but the euro/rand has come off a bit. We need to break through R7.35 or R7.40 on the topside against the dollar to see any real movement." He said that eyes would turn to the US later with ISM and employment data expected out.

RMB analysts noted in a morning report that the rand had started to reflect the concerns over the slowing global economy for the first time yesterday - weakening on all the major crosses, with US dollar/rand pushing up to a new high of R7.43. "This could easily have turned into a rout but after a weak start US equities fought back to close sideways overnight - taking some pressure off
the rand and leaving US dollar/rand back at the mid-R7.30s," the analysts said.

RMB said that risks were heightened by the reattachment to the equity environment.

"Event risk is huge, with country-by-country PMI data through the day, culminating in the US figure this afternoon," the group concluded.

Dow Jones Newswires reports that the euro gained on Wednesday as better-than-expected data from China and Australia helped to lift global risk sentiment.

The improvement in overall risk sentiment could prove short-lived, however, as the market is likely to remain nervous ahead of new manufacturing and employment data from the US later in the day as well as the release of new non-farm payrolls figures on Friday.

News from China that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index had risen last month to 51.7 from 51.2 in July, rather than making it to only 51.5 as expected, helped to lift the mood of financial markets, which have been troubled by fears over the global recovery.

Australia added to the positive mix when it reported the fastest growth in three years.

However, the mood was already starting to turn sour again as European trading got underway and the eurozone reported that its manufacturing PMI tumbled last month to 55.1 from 56.7 in July. 

The UK's August PMI, meanwhile, came in much lower than anticipated, falling all the way to 54.3 instead of only to 56.7. The July index was also revised down sharply to 56.9 from 57.3.

European stock markets reflected the shifting sentiment with a mixed performance as investor's now wait to see if the Institute of Supply Management survey and the ADP employment report from the US later Wednesday contribute to concerns about the global economy.

There are already concerns that the risks for new US non-farm payrolls on Friday are to the downside, given the poor employment component in the US consumer confidence figures that came out Tuesday.

The dollar was mostly lower as a result of the move back into higher-risk assets.

 
 
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