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Rand little changed below R7

Johannesburg - The rand was little changed from its overnight levels in early trade on Thursday, still remaining below the key R7 per dollar level.

At 09:09 local time the rand was bid at R6.9240 to the dollar from R6.9325 at the previous close. It was bid at R9.6555 to the euro from R9.6795 before and at R10.8903 against sterling from R10.9651 at its previous close.

The euro was bid at $1.3938 from $1.3961 on Friday.

Standard Bank analysts said in a morning report that the rand is expected to range-trade and take direction from broad-based dollar movements.

"Although the rand is still just below the psychological R7.00 handle, it stopped weakening yesterday due to renewed dollar weakness. The release of the Fed's beige book last night, which highlighted the uneven growth in the US, may be reflected in further dollar weakness today," they said.

RMB analysts said in their morning report that the rand was a clear underperformer yesterday, diverging from EUR/USD for the first time in weeks, dropping around 5 cents off the pace. 

"One shouldn't get carried away though. Currency market divergences often prove temporary - as we presume this one will be. Most importantly, we suspect the drop off in inflows is only temporary (although we've been saying this for a few weeks without a bounce back yet)," RMB analysts said.

The rand is expected to remain range-bound until next week's MTBPS which will hopefully provide more clarity as to what policy measures, if anything, the SA authorities plan to implement to curb rand strength, Standard Bank added.

For now the dollar will remain the main focus.

"The big story is all about the USD and not the ZAR, and this will remain the case for the next month given the Fed and G20 meetings. Officials are pouring into Seoul and the next three days are going to see the wires choked with comments. The key one this morning is from US Treasury Secretary Geithner who stated that the major currencies are in alignment and reiterated that the US has no plans to weaken the USD," RMB added.

Dow Jones Newswires reports that comments from US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner lent the dollar a helping hand against the euro and yen on Thursday in Asia, but dealers said the boost would likely prove short-lived amid continued expectations for more monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

The dollar rose in morning trade in Tokyo following an interview in The Wall Street Journal with Geithner in which he said he believes major currencies are "roughly in alignment now," suggesting he sees no need for further dollar falls against the euro and yen.

"Geithner's remarks sparked this dollar buying," by prompting investors to reassess recent speculation that the US may want the dollar to head even lower than it recently has, said Yuichiro Harada, senior FX dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank.
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