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Rand bears waiting in the wings

Johannesburg - The rand weakened against the dollar early on Wednesday with bears looking to push the currency past a two-week low, although trade would be influenced by inflation data due later in the session.

The rand hit a two-week low of R10.4775 to the dollar on Tuesday, breaking support at R10.45 after trying for three sessions, as appetite globally for riskier emerging market assets was dampened by worries about the outlook for global growth and political instability in Ukraine and Thailand.

Concerns about the platinum strike also weighed.

The currency opened weaker than R10.45 on Wednesday, signalling rand bears could have further room to go.

It was trading at R10.4700 to the dollar at 06:20 GMT on Wednesday, after closing in New York at R10.4400.

"The rand bears are staging a comeback," said Judy Padayachee, technical strategist at Barclays Africa.

"We are watching for follow-through on the moves posted yesterday. For dollar/rand, the peek above 10.45 is a step in the right direction given our three-month view of 11.75."

However, investors are likely to play it safe until the release of April consumer inflation data, due at 08:00 GMT. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation remained steady at 6%, the ceiling of the South African Reserve Bank's (Sarb's) 3-6% target.

The inflation data comes a day before the bank announces a decision on interest rates.

The rand has recovered some of the losses incurred at the start of the year during a slump in emerging market assets, which prompted Sarb to unexpectedly raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.5%.

It is now trading at stronger levels than it was at the time of the monetary policy committee's last rate-setting meeting in March.

Analysts say this has moderated inflation expectations, and gives Sarb room to keep rates steady at Thursday's meeting to help support the economy, even though the bank has said interest rates will rise in future.

If April inflation is above expectations, the rand is likely to claw some gains in this session as rate hike expectations would increase.

Yields on government bonds were flat at 8.205% on the benchmark 2026 issue and nudged down half a basis point to 6.705% on the 2015 note.
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Rand - Dollar
19.23
-0.2%
Rand - Pound
23.77
-0.3%
Rand - Euro
20.50
-0.3%
Rand - Aus dollar
12.39
-0.1%
Rand - Yen
0.12
-0.2%
Platinum
920.30
-1.1%
Palladium
1,002.00
-1.3%
Gold
2,302.41
-1.1%
Silver
26.84
-1.2%
Brent Crude
87.00
-0.3%
Top 40
67,612
+0.2%
All Share
73,570
+0.0%
Resource 10
58,718
-3.6%
Industrial 25
102,478
+1.4%
Financial 15
15,822
+1.3%
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