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Growth outlook a threat to rand

Johannesburg - The rand weakened against the dollar early on Wednesday, pressured by persistent foreign off-loading of local bonds and shares, and poor economic growth prospects for the year.

At 08:45, the rand was down more than 0.2% at R10.1440/$, off a R10.1205 close in New York on Tuesday.

Offshore accounts have sold local debt and stocks consistently for three straight weeks, while data on Tuesday showed the economy in the third quarter grew at its slowest pace since a 2009 recession, dragged down by strikes.

Analysts say the data signals the central bank's 1.9% growth forecast for 2013 will not be reached.

"Foreign stock and bond outflows have totalled a sizeable R29bn in the month-to-date, which in fact marks the worst performance stretching all the way back to the 2008 financial crisis," Tradition Analytics said in a note.

"Such a pronounced loss of external financing is a severe threat to rand stability."

The local economy is seen as one of the emerging economies more vulnerable to Fed tapering because of its reliance on portfolio inflows to fund a current account deficit standing at 6.5% of GDP.

The Reserve Bank gave a hawkish assessment of inflation late on Tuesday, reiterating concerns about the effect of a weak rand on the outlook for prices.

Yields on government bonds were up 2.5 basis points in Wednesday's early trade.

The benchmark 2026 bond was at 8.275%, while the shorter-dated 2015 note traded at 6.16%.

The National Treasury will announce bond issuance plans at 11:00, with results of power utility Eskom's latest auction due after that.
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19.21
-0.5%
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