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Johannesburg - South African bonds surrendered
brief budget-inspired gains on Wednesday after the market
digested the deficit forecasts unveiled by Finance Minister
Pravin Gordhan and found them unconvincing.
"The budget is not as good as the initial numbers look,"
said George Glynos, managing director at financial consultancy
ETM.
"Bonds have trimmed their gains. They responded to the
budget deficit figures but now that the market is dissecting
them they do not look realistic," he told Reuters.
Bond yields initially dropped as Gordhan said in his annual
budget speech that the budget deficit would narrow to 4.6
percent of gross domestic product in the financial year ending
March 2013 from a 4.8% shortfall in 2011/12.
But as the numbers sank in, the market questioned future
deficit projections such as four percent of GDP in 2013/14
because the economic growth outlook remains sluggish.
The yield on the 2026 bond went up to 8.24
percent, after hitting a session low of 8.18 percent shortly
after the budget speech began.
The 2015 bond also gave up gains with its yield
rising to 6.61 percent, from a session low of 6.58 percent.
The rand was virtually unchanged, trading around 7.73
against the dollar, and it was seen tracking global events for
direction.
"There is no reason in this budget why the rand should go
stronger. Now that this is out of the way it will respond to
offshore developments again," said Glynos.
Technically, the rand could soften and target levels around
7.87 or 7.88/dlr, which it tested last week but found support.