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Oil trades near $49 as prices still capped by sufficient supply

Hong Kong - Oil traded near $49 a barrel in New York amid speculation that plentiful supplies will continue to thwart any further rallies.

Futures fell 1.3%. While growth in US drilling has stalled and Libya’s production revival was dealt a setback by protests, rebounding output is still capping prices, according to Saxo Bank.

A committee co-chaired by Kuwait and Russia will examine why some participants in the deal between OPEC and other producers to reduce global supply aren’t fully implementing their cuts.

Oil in New York was unable to hold its advance above $50 a barrel last week as signs of rising global supply eroded optimism that output curbs by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are rebalancing the market. Compliance with cuts was 86% in July, according to a Bloomberg survey.

“The market has recovered strongly from its lows on signs that the market is normalizing, but further upside at this stage seems unlikely,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo in Copenhagen.

West Texas Intermediate for September delivery was at $48.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 63 cents, at 10:52.

Total volume traded was about 12% above the 100-day average. Prices climbed 55c to $49.58 on Friday, trimming the weekly loss to 0.3%.

Brent for October settlement dropped 70 cents to $51.72 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices rose 41c to $52.42 on Friday, reducing the weekly decline to 0.2%. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $2.62 to October WTI.

Saudi Arabia said last month that it planned to increase pressure on nations that didn’t comply with their pledged cuts. Compliance by members of OPEC was at 78% in June, compared with 82% from its 10 non-OPEC partners, according to the International Energy Agency. Representatives from both sides meet on Monday and on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi.

“I expected compliance in this deal to weaken as time went on,” Robin Mills, head of Dubai-based consultant Qamar Energy, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The ultimate enforcement mechanism is that Saudi Arabia walks away from any deal, and production goes up and prices collapse and members get hurt. We’re not anywhere close to that now.”

Oil-market news:

US drillers reduced the number of rigs by one to 765, according to data on Friday from Baker Hughes.

That’s the second decline in three weeks. Libya’s Sharara oil field, the nation’s biggest, stopped production after a workers’ protest, according to a person familiar with the situation.

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