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Maize futures lower ahead of CEC report

Johannesburg – South African maize prices ended lower on Thursday, on the back of a weaker Chicago Board of Trade and a firmer rand.

The October maize contract shed R7 to R1 281 rand per ton, the December contract lost R11 to R1 316 rand and the March 2011 white maize contract came off R11 to R1 349 rand.

The October wheat contract shed R30 to R2 710 per ton and the December wheat contract dipped R14 to R2 730 rand. The March 2011 wheat contract shaved off R11 to R2 804.

At 12.26 the rand was bid at 7.0483 to the dollar from 7.0329 at the same time on Monday.
 
"We are following the weaker trend on the CBOT, coupled with the firmer rand. However, while I think that the CEC report will provide some support to the local market in the short term by lowering the maize production estimate, I do not necessarily expect the sentiment to be bullish due to the excess supply of the crop."

Dow Jones Newswires reports that US corn futures ended mixed Wednesday in a back-and-forth session, with support from crop uncertainty and a weaker dollar, traders said.

December corn ended down 1/4 cent to $5.05 per bushel and March corn closed up 1/4 cents to $5.18 1/4.

The market traded both sides of unchanged during the session. On its dip, the market held support at $5 in the December contract.

For now, the market appears to be "in a holding pattern," said Joel Karlin, analyst with Western Milling.

Traders are watching for any fresh reports on the U.S. crop, as yield reports so far have been disappointing.

"By no means is it a bad crop," said Dave Marshall, an independent commodity adviser in southern Illinois. "But the trade had built in expectations of a monster crop." Meanwhile, demand has remained strong, he said.

There are mixed views as to whether corn yields are improving as the harvest moves north and west.

Funds were even on the day. Bulls need fresh news to reignite the recent rally, traders said.

With prices topping $5 for the first time in almost two years, the market remains vulnerable to a correction, analysts said.

Marshall said with the end of the month and quarter approaching, some fund managers, given the sharp gains in the market the past three weeks, will be likely to take some "handsome" gains to the bank, and that profit-taking could remain a bearish factor in the short-term.

Traders are also watching for any signs that the high prices will start to reduce demand.

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