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London - Gold prices rallied on Monday after European policy
makers failed to soothe fears of Greek default and contagion to other eurozone
countries, prompting investors to seek refuge in the precious metal.
Spot gold was bid at $1 817.99 a troy ounce at 10:33 GMT
from $1 810.73 late in New York on Friday. The precious metal hit a record high
of $1 920.30 on September 6.
However, a stronger US currency which makes
dollar-denominated metals cheaper for holders of other currencies capped gold’s
price gains. It ranged between $1 827.36 and $1 810.73/oz.
The cancellation of a visit by Greek Prime Minister George
Papandreou to the United States to chair an emergency cabinet meeting at home
and a regional election defeat for German Chancellor Angela Merkel added to
perceptions of a worsening crisis.
“Buying interest is picking up and given ongoing problems in
the eurozone and the financial system, safe haven demand should remain strong,”
said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. “Last week’s correction was just
a short-term brief downward move.”
Spot gold hit a three-week low of $1 761.94/oz on
Friday.
EU finance ministers at meetings ending on Saturday broke no
new ground in dealing with the crisis and made no decision on whether to give
more firepower to the €440bn bailout fund as suggested by US Treasury Secretary
Timothy Geithner.
Markets are expected to focus on a policy meeting of the US
Federal Reserve on Tuesday and Wednesday. Any announcement of further stimulus
for the economy could help buoy gold prices.
Opportunity cost
Gold prices are expected to hit $2 200 by 2012, supported by
the economic uncertainties in Europe and the United States, said the chief
executive of AngloGold Ashanti [JSE:ANG], the world’s third-largest gold
producer.
“The European sovereign debt crisis remains unresolved,
underpinning investment demand, and we see an extended period of negative real
interest rates,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Low or negative interest rates mean there is no opportunity
cost to holding gold, as major currencies such as the dollar, yen or sterling
yield little or no interest.
The Federal Reserve, facing rising global financial strains
and recession fears, is poised to increase downward pressure on longer-term
interest rates next week in a bid to help the sputtering US recovery.
“Beyond near-term weakness, we remain positive on gold as
uncertainty heightens over Europe and the near-term outlook for the US, as well
financial market instability,” Barclays Capital said in a note.
“(Gold’s) downside has been cushioned by physical demand and
looks to be increasingly supported amid the seasonally strong period for
demand.”
Analysts expect gold to be supported at $1 800/oz, a
level at which Asian buyers have been seen returning to buy. On the upside,
gold is likely to zigzag up towards $1 930/oz, with an immediate target
at $1 860, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Silver tracked gold higher. It was at $40.33/oz from
$40.60 late on Friday.
Platinum was at $1 804.24 from $1 804.83 and palladium at
$720.00 from $727.05/oz.
Platinum and palladium have recently come under pressure
from expectations of weaker demand from the auto industry, which uses precious
industrial metals to make catalytic converters.
