Johannesburg - South African bonds were a few
basis points firmer in midday trade on Wednesday, on the back of a bout
of short-covering following yesterday's offshore buying. A trader said consumer price index (CPI) data had surprised on the downside.
Short-covering activity is positive for prices, as it means
short sellers have to purchase securities to close out short sales.
By 11:50, the benchmark R157 bond was trading at 6.660%, from
its previous close of 6.760%. The R207 was trading at 7.880% from a
previous close of 7.970% and the R186 was trading at 8.440% from its
close of 8.510%.
The rand was bid at 8.0141 against the dollar from its previous close of 8.0282.
"They've been generally good buying curves from yesterday, we
had a strong auction and there was follow through from offshore accounts
buying R157s - some of the guys are now caught a bit short.
'Inflation surprised on the downside - everything looks good
again. I think we'll trade around these levels, though we'd like them a
touch lower," a trader said.
The increase in SA's CPI, which is used
by the SA Reserve Bank (Sarb) for its inflation target, was 6.1% year-on-year (y/y) in December, from 6.1% y/y in November, Statistics SA said on Wednesday.
The inflation rate was expected to have ticked up slightly to
6.2% y/y in December from the 6.1% y/y seen in November, according to a
survey of leading economists by I-Net Bridge.
Forecasts among the seven economists ranged from 6.1% to 6.3%.
Annabel Bishop, an economist at Investec, said CPI inflation
came out slightly lower than expected in December and was likely to
remain out of the 3% to 6% target range until the second quarter of 2012 as
base effects wear off and global disinflation aid it lower.
"The reserve bank is not expected to hike interest rates this
week, both because of weak global and domestic growth and because it
targets future expected inflation outcomes in the period between six and 18 months.
"It does not target inflation between now and the end of the
second quarter of 2012, as interest rate changes cannot influence
inflation significantly in the short term.
"We expect no interest rate
hikes at all in 2012. Indeed, the MPC (monetary policy committee) may even cut rates if growth
weakens significantly further," she said.
The Reserve Bank's three-day
MPC meeting which began yesterday continues; a rates decision will be
announced at about 15:00 on Thursday.
Today also sees the release of retail sales for November at 13:00.
Foreigners were net buyers of R1.078bn of South African
bonds including repo transactions on Tuesday, after net purchases of
R60.057m of local bonds on Monday, data released by the JSE
show.
Nominal cumulative volume was R190.378bn on Tuesday from R54.035 billion on Monday.
Foreigners were net buyers of R1.086bn of South African
bonds excluding repo transactions on Tuesday, after net purchases of
R58.721m of local bonds on Monday.
For the year to date foreigners have been net buyers of R238.090m of local bonds, excluding repo transactions.
In 2011 foreigners were net buyers of R47.359bn worth of local bonds, excluding repo transactions.
In the year to date foreigners have been net sellers of R578.734m of local bonds including repo transactions.
In 2011 they bought R37.501bn of local bonds.