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Oil gains on expected Opec cut

Oct 24 2008 08:32

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Singapore - Oil rose in Asian trade on Friday amid expectations Opec will cut production at an emergency meeting in Vienna, but falling global demand should limit any price increase, analysts said.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for December delivery, climbed 50c to $68.34 a barrel from its close in the United States on Thursday.

Brent North Sea crude for December delivery was 58c higher at $66.50.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), meeting in Vienna on Friday, is set to announce a cut to oil output in a bid to shore up prices, which have been plunging as fears of a global recession hit demand.

Opec President Chakib Khelil said on Thursday that the cartel will decide to reduce production at the meeting.

Ahead of the gathering, Iran, Opec's second biggest oil exporter, and Libya called for a reduction of two million barrels per day, while Venezuela said there should be a cut of at least one million barrels.

Ken Hasegawa, energy manager at Newedge Japan brokerage in Tokyo, said that while the market is widely expecting an output cut, falling global demand for energy and weakness in the financial markets are likely to weigh on oil prices.

"Stock markets in Asia are still very weak... I think that in the oil market it's not easy to go up firmly even though Opec decides to slash production," he said.

Keep a lid on oil

Fears of a deepening global recession and high oil prices, which touched a historic high of more than $147 a barrel in July, have forced consumers to cut back on energy usage.

Phil Flynn, an energy analyst at Chicago-based Alaron Trading, said global demand could drop by more than two million barrels per day, while at the same time inventories are building.

"That demand drop will accelerate if Opec cuts production... So barring a colder-than-normal hemispheric winter, even with a production cut of two million barrels of oil a day by the cartel, we should see global inventories continuing to rise," he said.

"That should keep a lid on oil as we move forward."

Flynn said in a market commentary that oil prices "should start heading to the $50 per barrel area" although the fall may not be drastic.

"I am looking for a test of the 2007 low and look for oil to make a troughing or saucer like bottom skimming along that area. We then should resume the longer term uptrend but in a more normal fashion," he said.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown recently said that any reduction made in a bid to push up oil prices would be "scandalous" at a time when major economies are close to recession.

Opec produces 40% of the world's oil and its official output quota stands at 28.8 million barrels per day.

Friday's meeting on the impact of the global financial crisis and looming recession on the oil market was originally planned for November 18 but was brought forward as prices plunged.

Opec comprises Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. A 13th, Indonesia, suspended membership earlier this year after becoming a net importer.

- AFP

 
 
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