China's trade surplus rebounds

Beijing - China said on Monday it had rebounded to a trade surplus in April, which analysts said reflected the underlying strength of the world's third largest economy and a pick-up in the United States.

The figures could prompt renewed calls from China's trade partners for Beijing to alter its exchange rate policy and were issued as a top government economist urged policymakers to widen the yuan trading band.

China posted a surplus of $1.68bn in April, the official Xinhua news agency said, quoting customs authorities.

Although it was down 87% from a year ago, the figure marked a turnaround from March, when China recorded a deficit of $7.2bn - its first in six years.

Exports totalled $119.92bn in April, up 30.5% from the same month a year earlier, Xinhua said, while imports rose 49.7% to $118.24bn.

Analysts said the trade data highlighted the recovery in the US economy and robust growth in China - a blistering 11.9% in the first quarter.

"Recent data out of the United States is more encouraging for Chinese exporters and we think that external demand should continue to provide solid support to China's recovery over the rest of the year," said Brian Jackson, a senior analyst at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

"Import growth, meanwhile, remains strong, indicating that Chinese demand is also making a robust contribution to global growth."

The data came as Europe announced a trillion-dollar rescue package for crisis-hit euro countries backed by the International Monetary Fund and central banks worldwide.

But Citigroup economist Ken Peng said it was too early to tell if the European debt crisis would have a serious impact on demand for Chinese-made goods.

"Recent happenings in Europe may have a negative impact on European demand but I don't think that has been reflected yet," said Peng.

The return to a trade surplus could increase international pressure on China to alter its exchange rate policy.

The yuan has been effectively pegged at about 6.8 to the dollar since mid-2008 to aid exporters during the global financial crisis - a policy some in the United States and Europe say gives those exporters an unfair advantage.

An economist at a Chinese government-backed think tank urged policymakers to widen the yuan trading band at an "appropriate time" to ensure balanced and steady economic growth.

"We should put on the agenda the widening of the foreign exchange rate trading band at an appropriate time," said Ba Shusong of the cabinet's Development Research Centre, the Shanghai Securities News reported.

"It is a very important part of macroeconomic and political decision-making. It will be conducive to balanced and steady growth of the economy and will benefit everyone."

Ba also warned that the scope for an interest rate hike was small because rates in the United States and other countries remained relatively low.

A hike in Chinese interest rates could encourage speculative funds to flow into the country to take advantage of the relatively higher yield.

Credit Suisse chief regional economist Dong Tao said the return to a trade surplus in April was unlikely to translate into a fast-track exchange rate regime change.

"Having the confidence that exports are recovering clearly helps but in the meantime, I think the leaders in Beijing are concerned about the drama in Europe and the risks of a double dip (recession)," Dong said.

China has been under mounting pressure from the United States, Europe and developing countries in Asia and Latin America for a stronger currency.

US lawmakers, facing pressure ahead of November mid-term elections, have threatened sanctions against Beijing, while Brazil and India went public last month with their preference for a gradual appreciation in the yuan.

  - AFP