Johannesburg - While the relationship between China and the commodity 'super cycle' may be cooling, an asset manager believes that another segment of the Chinese economy is likely to offer great value for investors in the future.
"We are China bulls, and believe now is a good time to start investing in China. Of course the investment time-scale is everything, and while we can't say with complete certainty that the lows are already in place for the Chinese markets, we do believe that we are there or thereabouts," said Jonathan Schiessel, who manages the Chindia Equity Fund and Asia Pacific Equity Fund for asset manager Ashburton.
Schiessel says that he sees a more domestic-orientated fiscal policy aimed at stimulating other segments of the Chinese economy, including service industries in the region.
China has been a major contributor to the surge in global commodity prices in recent years. The region has been through a sharp infrastructural boom, making it a solid buyer of base metals and steel products. However, with the global financial and economic crisis starting to bite, a number of analysts have begun to downgrade their financial forecasts for the region.
Schiessel said: "We have seen unsustainable levels of growth in China, particularly on the infrastructure side. We've now reached a tipping point where the growth orientation is changing."
Consumer focus
Where commodity companies have previously been the major beneficiaries of the Chinese growth, Schiessel believes that businesses with exposure to the Chinese consumer market may do well and has positioned his portfolio accordingly.
He said: "China has traditionally had very high levels of savings because the region lacked systems like pension, medical and other social schemes. The country is now rolling out these offerings to workers, which means that there will be an increase in available discretionary spend."
Schiessel believes that companies offering strong, branded consumer goods including items such as beer and luxury goods into the Chinese market will do well. However, he did warn that firms looking to enter this segment of the market needed to be aware that many companies had failed spectacularly while trying to enter the Chinese market and did not appreciate how cut-throat it is.
One aspect that Schiessel thinks may been benefiting strong consumer brand is the tainted milk scandal. Many Chinese-produced milk products were found to have harmful chemicals in them, and this led to a lot of distrust of Chinese-manufactured products both in the domestic and export markets.
"If you can establish a strong brand name in China, then you will do well," said Schiessel.
The luxury goods industry is another area where Schiessel believes investors could benefit. He said: "In China, just like Japan, people will spend large parts of their disposable income on top end luxury goods."
Schiessel pointed to a company like JSE-listed Richemont as a way for people to gain exposure to this market. He said: "If one looks at luxury goods companies such as Richemont, many of them are reporting increasing levels of sales from China and the East."
- Fin24.com