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Cause for tears and cheers

WHILE many economists are optimistic about the growth figure for the first quarter of this year, a high figure won’t be reason for much jeer because of jobless growth. Recently released Statistics SA figures showed jobs were lost and South Africa’s unemployment rate increased over the first quarter. By contrast, richer consumers were buying cars at a rapid rate, although that was off a low base from last year.
EMPLOYMENT FALLS
THE HOPE THAT had been raised when employment increased a bit in fourth quarter 2009 was snuffed out in the first quarter of this year, when Statistics SA released its Quarterly Labour Force Survey. The survey showed employment declined by 171 000 between fourth quarter 2009 and the first quarter 2010.
FORMAL SECTOR JOBS LOST
SOUTH AFRICA’S formal sector – by far the biggest employer in the country – also saw the most job losses in the first quarter. Stats SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey shows more than half of the jobs lost in first quarter 2010 (140 000) were in the formal sector. The number of discouraged work seekers surged by 153 000 in the first quarter.
CAR SALES REBOUND
NEW PASSENGER vehicle sales, as reported by the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of SA, increased by an impressive 28% year-on-year in April this year. This followed deep declines last year, and economists – though glad about the rebound – point out it came off a very low base. For 2009 as a whole, passenger vehicle sales declined by 23% – the worst in decades.
MONTH-ON-MONTH FALL
THERE WAS a month-on-month fall in passenger vehicle sales, as the graph shows. But because monthly vehicle sales aren’t seasonally adjusted for factors such as Christmas, Easter and purchases by vehicle rental companies, sales are usually looked at on an annual basis. Stanlib says the disastrous vehicle sales last year created a very low base of activity in the industry.
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