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The ANC’s top brass are preparing to hold what’s being billed as a post-mortem of the recent local government elections. However, members of its national executive committee started their past weekend discussions with a very different event on their minds – next year’s party congress. “The 2012 conference (where a new ANC leadership will be elected) will be the elephant in the room and each person will debate according to how they want to see the campaign leading up to the congress unfolding,” says Prince Mashele, of the Centre for Politics Research.
The question is whether the ANC’s performance in the municipal elections has given President Jacob Zuma’s enemies in the party the kind of ammunition they need to stop him from being elected for a second term at the conference at Mangaung in December next year?
Political commentator Allister Sparks believes the election results will spell problems for Zuma. Sparks argues that when Zuma became South Africa’s President in 2008 the ANC enjoyed 70% support among the electorate. In Zuma’s first national election that dropped to 66% and in this year’s municipal elections it was down to 61%. Compared with the 2009 elections, says Sparks, the ANC lost ground in this year’s poll in all provinces apart from KwaZulu-Natal. Crucially, it also lost almost all support from all three ethnic minorities.
Although other analyses of the 2011 municipal poll suggest the Democratic Alliance didn’t actually take votes away from the ANC, the official opposition was the only party to gain in strength. It’s parading the fact that it won outright control of 18 local councils against the six it controlled before the elections. While the DA is confident of forming coalitions with other parties so it governs in more than 18 municipalities it also believes the most critical gain was its portion of SA’s black vote, which increased from 1% to 6%.
Aubrey Matshiqi, Research Fellow at the Helen Suzman Foundation, says there’s no doubt Zuma’s critics in the party will consider using the election results to mobilise support to have him removed next year. “The ANC’s local election campaign was poor. It wasn’t co-ordinated and – if you look at Zuma’s speech at the Siyanqoba rally (the ANC’s final election rally) as well as the party’s manifesto launch in Rustenburg – the ANC was negative, inappropriate and spoke to the quality of support Zuma attracts.”
Matshiqi says attacks on Zuma in the run-up to the 2012 conference will go different ways. Opponents will hone in on the support he attracts (and the support he alienates because of that) and it will question the people around him.
However, there’s the risk Zuma’s critics will have to weigh up in any attempt to use the recent election results/campaign against him. It could backfire, because Zuma’s supporters in the party can also easily point fingers at those who want Zuma out. “The balance of support in the ANC is very fluid at the moment and any attempt to use the election results (in the leadership battle) may not fly,” Matshiqi adds.
Professor Sipho Seepe says any election failure has to be blamed on the leadership collective, especially party Secretary General Gwede Mantashe, ANC election chiefs Ngoako Ramatlhodi and Jessie Duarte, as well as the party’s head of organising and campaigns, Fikile Mbalula. While the last-mentioned has been linked to the ANC faction campaigning to oust Zuma and Mantashe at next year’s conference, Seepe adds: “The President isn’t the national organiser or in charge of elections. Questions (about election failures) are going to have to be asked of the leadership as a collective.”
Steven Friedman, of the Centre for the Study of Democracy, doesn’t believe the ANC’s performance in the recent elections will in any way affect Zuma’s bid for a second term. “The ANC didn’t lose that many seats. Yes, they (the ANC) did have a setback but it wasn’t so significant that heads have to roll,” argues Friedman, who stresses the election results are more complex than initial analysis suggests. For example, of the 8% the DA gained from the elections, 5,5% was gained from smaller parties – which means just 2,5% was gained from the ANC’s voting base.
Ultimately, final election statistics can be used selectively to prove an argument in favour of the DA, the ANC, Zuma or his critics in the ANC. However, Mashele says any campaign against Zuma will be far more subtle than one that focuses only on the recent municipal elections. It will capitalise on weaknesses – such as his indecisiveness and the scandals he and his family have been linked to, especially when it comes to the Gupta family and their business interests.
While some of Zuma’s critics, such as ANC Youth League president Julius Malema are already vocal on those points, ominous crime intelligence reports that claim to reveal individuals plotting against Zuma are already doing the rounds. Apart from Malema and Mbalula, this group allegedly includes David Mabusa, Cassel Mathale, Bathabile Dlamini, Tony Yengeni, Tokyo Sexwale, Paul Mashatile, Enoch Godongwana and Thandi Modise. All vehemently denied such claims.
While union federation Cosatu is playing it safe by saying it will support policies and not individuals, sources within it – as well as in the SA Communist Party – privately express concerns about supporting Zuma in 2012 because he’s come to represent what’s arguably the ANC’s biggest problem: essentially a growing credibility problem underpinned by the conspicuous consumption public representatives – who often have significant if not questionable vested business interests – display.
Exacerbating that is the perception public representatives lack accountability and pay little attention to voters between election campaigns. The ANC’s labour alliance partner isn’t happy with Zuma’s performance but it hasn’t decided exactly how to play its hand next year. Will it find itself in an anti-Zuma coalition of convenience with the ANCYL or will it support Zuma to keep out the ANCYL faction?
While much will also depend on how Zuma plays (or gets played by) the internal politics of the ANC, one thing is certain: the gloves for the contest in December 2012 are off and the months leading up to it will be fraught with scandal and gutter politics.
The question is whether the ANC’s performance in the municipal elections has given President Jacob Zuma’s enemies in the party the kind of ammunition they need to stop him from being elected for a second term at the conference at Mangaung in December next year?
Political commentator Allister Sparks believes the election results will spell problems for Zuma. Sparks argues that when Zuma became South Africa’s President in 2008 the ANC enjoyed 70% support among the electorate. In Zuma’s first national election that dropped to 66% and in this year’s municipal elections it was down to 61%. Compared with the 2009 elections, says Sparks, the ANC lost ground in this year’s poll in all provinces apart from KwaZulu-Natal. Crucially, it also lost almost all support from all three ethnic minorities.
Although other analyses of the 2011 municipal poll suggest the Democratic Alliance didn’t actually take votes away from the ANC, the official opposition was the only party to gain in strength. It’s parading the fact that it won outright control of 18 local councils against the six it controlled before the elections. While the DA is confident of forming coalitions with other parties so it governs in more than 18 municipalities it also believes the most critical gain was its portion of SA’s black vote, which increased from 1% to 6%.
Aubrey Matshiqi, Research Fellow at the Helen Suzman Foundation, says there’s no doubt Zuma’s critics in the party will consider using the election results to mobilise support to have him removed next year. “The ANC’s local election campaign was poor. It wasn’t co-ordinated and – if you look at Zuma’s speech at the Siyanqoba rally (the ANC’s final election rally) as well as the party’s manifesto launch in Rustenburg – the ANC was negative, inappropriate and spoke to the quality of support Zuma attracts.”
Matshiqi says attacks on Zuma in the run-up to the 2012 conference will go different ways. Opponents will hone in on the support he attracts (and the support he alienates because of that) and it will question the people around him.
However, there’s the risk Zuma’s critics will have to weigh up in any attempt to use the recent election results/campaign against him. It could backfire, because Zuma’s supporters in the party can also easily point fingers at those who want Zuma out. “The balance of support in the ANC is very fluid at the moment and any attempt to use the election results (in the leadership battle) may not fly,” Matshiqi adds.
Professor Sipho Seepe says any election failure has to be blamed on the leadership collective, especially party Secretary General Gwede Mantashe, ANC election chiefs Ngoako Ramatlhodi and Jessie Duarte, as well as the party’s head of organising and campaigns, Fikile Mbalula. While the last-mentioned has been linked to the ANC faction campaigning to oust Zuma and Mantashe at next year’s conference, Seepe adds: “The President isn’t the national organiser or in charge of elections. Questions (about election failures) are going to have to be asked of the leadership as a collective.”
Steven Friedman, of the Centre for the Study of Democracy, doesn’t believe the ANC’s performance in the recent elections will in any way affect Zuma’s bid for a second term. “The ANC didn’t lose that many seats. Yes, they (the ANC) did have a setback but it wasn’t so significant that heads have to roll,” argues Friedman, who stresses the election results are more complex than initial analysis suggests. For example, of the 8% the DA gained from the elections, 5,5% was gained from smaller parties – which means just 2,5% was gained from the ANC’s voting base.
Ultimately, final election statistics can be used selectively to prove an argument in favour of the DA, the ANC, Zuma or his critics in the ANC. However, Mashele says any campaign against Zuma will be far more subtle than one that focuses only on the recent municipal elections. It will capitalise on weaknesses – such as his indecisiveness and the scandals he and his family have been linked to, especially when it comes to the Gupta family and their business interests.
While some of Zuma’s critics, such as ANC Youth League president Julius Malema are already vocal on those points, ominous crime intelligence reports that claim to reveal individuals plotting against Zuma are already doing the rounds. Apart from Malema and Mbalula, this group allegedly includes David Mabusa, Cassel Mathale, Bathabile Dlamini, Tony Yengeni, Tokyo Sexwale, Paul Mashatile, Enoch Godongwana and Thandi Modise. All vehemently denied such claims.
While union federation Cosatu is playing it safe by saying it will support policies and not individuals, sources within it – as well as in the SA Communist Party – privately express concerns about supporting Zuma in 2012 because he’s come to represent what’s arguably the ANC’s biggest problem: essentially a growing credibility problem underpinned by the conspicuous consumption public representatives – who often have significant if not questionable vested business interests – display.
Exacerbating that is the perception public representatives lack accountability and pay little attention to voters between election campaigns. The ANC’s labour alliance partner isn’t happy with Zuma’s performance but it hasn’t decided exactly how to play its hand next year. Will it find itself in an anti-Zuma coalition of convenience with the ANCYL or will it support Zuma to keep out the ANCYL faction?
While much will also depend on how Zuma plays (or gets played by) the internal politics of the ANC, one thing is certain: the gloves for the contest in December 2012 are off and the months leading up to it will be fraught with scandal and gutter politics.
