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South Africa’s integrated resources plan (IRP) for electricity between 2010 and 2030 – as approved by the Cabinet – requires decisions to be made this year on the country’s next two nuclear powered as well as its next two coal-fired power stations. Although not yet officially released, full details of the plan have been published by EE Publishers on their website (http://eepublishers.co.za). According to the Department of Energy (DoE) the IRP will only be posted on its website within the next week after it’s been officially published in the Government Gazette. Key features of the IRP include calls for huge investments in nuclear and renewable sources of energy and a decision to bring forward construction of planned coal-fired power stations.
Those coal-fired stations also appear to have been restructured into a larger number of smaller capacity plants from the original “revised balanced” plan, which called for 5 000MW of capacity to be installed between 2027 and 2030. Those units ranged in size from 750MW to 2 000MW.
The modified “policy-adjusted” plan – as now approved by Cabinet – calls for the construction of two 500MW units in 2014 and 2015, to be followed by 250MW of coal-fired capacity every year from 2019 to 2025. After that, the remaining six years of the plan will see 250MW of coal-fired generation installed one year, followed by 1 000MW the next. Total new installed coal-fired generating capacity increases to 6 250MW from the 5 000MW called for previously.
A key policy factor with regard to coal is the decision that power imported from coal-fired power stations in neighbouring countries – such as Botswana and Mozambique – “will not be separately identified but considered part of the domestic coal fleet, with emissions counting towards SA’s carbon inventory, as with domestic coal”.
The plan doesn’t indicate which specific projects are being short-listed but as for the first two 500MW plants there are some obvious candidates, which include the Limpopo independent power producer (IPP) project being looked at by Exxaro Resources and the IPP plant being promoted by Australian coal junior Riversdale near Tete in Mozambique.
As for nuclear powered stations, the “policy-adjusted” plan sticks to the original schedule, which calls for a 1 600MW station to be built every year between 2023 and 2026, followed by two more 1 600MW units in 2028 and 2029, for a total installed nuclear generating capacity of 9 600MW.
The “policy-adjusted” plan also calls for a huge amount of renewable generation capacity to be built, including 8 400MW of wind-generated power, 8 400MW of solar photo-voltaic (PV) power and 1 000MW of concentrating solar power (CSP).
The IRP plan is to be reviewed every two years but it notes key decisions are required about nuclear and coal before the next revision in 2012. The document states: “Long lead times for new nuclear power stations require immediate, firm commitment to the first 3GW.”
Turning to coal, it adds the first two 500MW plants will be coal fluidised bed combustion units built, owned and operated by independent power producers. “They need to be firmly committed to by the private investors in a timely manner to ensure that this expected capacity will be met.”
Mike Rossouw, chairman of the Energy Intensive User Group of SA, who helped advise the DoE in drawing up the IRP, says: “This plan is ambitious and doable, but it will require an extraordinary effort to put in place. This isn’t business as usual and a normal approach isn’t going to work.”
That will be a concern to many observers, judging by Government’s track record when it failed badly to take key decisions in time. The most glaring example is the coal-fired power station Eskom wanted permission to build in 2000 and didn’t get, which triggered SA’s power crisis from January 2008 onwards.
Government also failed to take a decision by year-end 2008 on its next proposed nuclear power station, despite having two favourable tenders on the table and despite its current proposed plans to build six new nuclear stations.
The scale of construction work required for its wind and solar energy generating requirements is also staggering and will require hundreds of square kilometres of ground to be devoted to wind turbine and solar panel “farms”. SA’s initial wind farm – at Darling, in the Western Cape, which cost R75m – has the capacity to generate just more than 5MW of power using four wind turbines, compared with the 8 400MW the IRP is now calling for.
The report also appears to provide support for Eskom in its lobbying for intervention in the coal industry by Government to ensure security of future supplies. It states: “By far the greatest risk with respect to fuel prices lies in the coal fuel cost. Today, SA is in the very privileged position of having access to coal that is priced well below world market prices and locked in via long-term contracts.
“If, however, those contracts expire and are open to renegotiation – especially the older, existing contracts – it is uncertain whether the new negotiated price will remain favourable, especially if selling on the global market would be more attractive.”
Those coal-fired stations also appear to have been restructured into a larger number of smaller capacity plants from the original “revised balanced” plan, which called for 5 000MW of capacity to be installed between 2027 and 2030. Those units ranged in size from 750MW to 2 000MW.
The modified “policy-adjusted” plan – as now approved by Cabinet – calls for the construction of two 500MW units in 2014 and 2015, to be followed by 250MW of coal-fired capacity every year from 2019 to 2025. After that, the remaining six years of the plan will see 250MW of coal-fired generation installed one year, followed by 1 000MW the next. Total new installed coal-fired generating capacity increases to 6 250MW from the 5 000MW called for previously.
A key policy factor with regard to coal is the decision that power imported from coal-fired power stations in neighbouring countries – such as Botswana and Mozambique – “will not be separately identified but considered part of the domestic coal fleet, with emissions counting towards SA’s carbon inventory, as with domestic coal”.
The plan doesn’t indicate which specific projects are being short-listed but as for the first two 500MW plants there are some obvious candidates, which include the Limpopo independent power producer (IPP) project being looked at by Exxaro Resources and the IPP plant being promoted by Australian coal junior Riversdale near Tete in Mozambique.
As for nuclear powered stations, the “policy-adjusted” plan sticks to the original schedule, which calls for a 1 600MW station to be built every year between 2023 and 2026, followed by two more 1 600MW units in 2028 and 2029, for a total installed nuclear generating capacity of 9 600MW.
The “policy-adjusted” plan also calls for a huge amount of renewable generation capacity to be built, including 8 400MW of wind-generated power, 8 400MW of solar photo-voltaic (PV) power and 1 000MW of concentrating solar power (CSP).
The IRP plan is to be reviewed every two years but it notes key decisions are required about nuclear and coal before the next revision in 2012. The document states: “Long lead times for new nuclear power stations require immediate, firm commitment to the first 3GW.”
Turning to coal, it adds the first two 500MW plants will be coal fluidised bed combustion units built, owned and operated by independent power producers. “They need to be firmly committed to by the private investors in a timely manner to ensure that this expected capacity will be met.”
Mike Rossouw, chairman of the Energy Intensive User Group of SA, who helped advise the DoE in drawing up the IRP, says: “This plan is ambitious and doable, but it will require an extraordinary effort to put in place. This isn’t business as usual and a normal approach isn’t going to work.”
That will be a concern to many observers, judging by Government’s track record when it failed badly to take key decisions in time. The most glaring example is the coal-fired power station Eskom wanted permission to build in 2000 and didn’t get, which triggered SA’s power crisis from January 2008 onwards.
Government also failed to take a decision by year-end 2008 on its next proposed nuclear power station, despite having two favourable tenders on the table and despite its current proposed plans to build six new nuclear stations.
The scale of construction work required for its wind and solar energy generating requirements is also staggering and will require hundreds of square kilometres of ground to be devoted to wind turbine and solar panel “farms”. SA’s initial wind farm – at Darling, in the Western Cape, which cost R75m – has the capacity to generate just more than 5MW of power using four wind turbines, compared with the 8 400MW the IRP is now calling for.
The report also appears to provide support for Eskom in its lobbying for intervention in the coal industry by Government to ensure security of future supplies. It states: “By far the greatest risk with respect to fuel prices lies in the coal fuel cost. Today, SA is in the very privileged position of having access to coal that is priced well below world market prices and locked in via long-term contracts.
“If, however, those contracts expire and are open to renegotiation – especially the older, existing contracts – it is uncertain whether the new negotiated price will remain favourable, especially if selling on the global market would be more attractive.”
