Share

Zuma’s end game

With scandal-hit Jacob Zuma likely to exit as president of the ruling ANC at the party’s elective conference in December 2017, debates around his potential party and state successor continue to gather momentum as the country envisages a Zuma-free political future. 

Like many of his contemporaries, associate professor of politics at Wits University, Daryl Glaser, believes Zuma’s political power will begin to dwindle following the elective conference, at which the party will usher in a new, less publicly mired party leader.

“My basic feeling now is that nothing momentous is going to happen between now and the 2017 elective [conference]. Zuma has managed to survive the severest of attacks and nothing else between now and December presents itself obviously as another pretext for an attempt to get rid of him. 

“Certainly legal cases will play themselves out, but Zuma is a master of legal delay and it’s proven very difficult to nail him legally. I think he will become legally weak at some point but probably not before December,” Glaser tells finweek. 

Zuma’s vulnerability will likely be most evident between the ANC elective conference and the 2019 national elections, when the new ANC leader will almost certainly be put forward as the party’s presidential candidate. 

“During this period, there will be two centres of power in the party, and I suspect if there is any move to recall Zuma [as president of the country] during this period he would have good advance warning,” Glaser notes. 

Modernist emergence

South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR) CEO Frans Cronje adds that a Zuma exit presents succession opportunities for the modernist faction of the ANC, which is comprised of a new class of successful black entrepreneurs, the emerging urban black middle class and a cross-section of older party stalwarts who are beginning to understand that policy reform will be necessary to secure the party’s future. 

ANC deputy president and possible Zuma successor Cyril Ramaphosa is largely considered to be a member of this grouping. 

“This faction is often overlooked in analyses of South Africa. Some argue that no such group exists, or that it has been swallowed up by the arrogance and corruption of the party. We believe that this is selling the ANC short,” he comments. 

One scenario Cronje outlines, is that reformists gain a balance of power in the ruling party over the next 18 months, seizing control of the party at its internal leadership elections in December 2017 and leading the party to contest the 2019 national elections. 

Succession battle

With a little under a year left within which political strategies can be advanced and loyalties aligned, the succession question remains an open-ended one. 

The frontrunners, at this point, however, appear to be African Union chairperson and Zuma’s ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, and Ramaphosa, a favourite of the business community and Cosatu. 

“Until quite recently, Dlamini-Zuma looked like a bit of a shoe-in, but of late we’ve seen powerful forces bringing Ramaphosa back into play,” comments Glaser. 

“Neither of them have a particularly huge personal following, but Ramaphosa is more vulnerable in that he lost a lot of credibility after Marikana, so we’re potentially heading for a major showdown between the supporters of the two camps.” 

According to a study by Japanese financial services group Nomura, strong support for Dlamini-Zuma from the so-called “Premier League”, the ANC Youth League, the ANC Women’s League and the MK Veterans puts her somewhat ahead of Ramaphosa and possible others in the succession charge. 

Ramaphosa enjoys strong support from the Gauteng ANC, business groups, Cosatu and the South African Communist Party, but lacks broad internal party support. 

Also emerging as a possible contender is ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize, who is backed by a strong support base in Gauteng and the traditional Zulu faction of the ANC. While his perceived chumminess with Zuma may scupper his chances at the presidency, Mkhize could be seen as a “compromise” president linking disparate factions. 

Economic growth trajectory

Irrespective of how long Jacob Zuma may still occupy the presidency, South African attention now needs to turn to envisaging how the country will meet its challenges in the post-Zuma era, IRR policy fellow John Kane-Berman asserts. 

The most obvious of these is to move the country back onto a trajectory of economic growth and rebuilding legality. 

Penning his position in an IRR paper titled Rebuilding legality after Zuma, Kane-Berman argues that Zuma’s defining legacy goes beyond his “destruction” of elite crime-fighting unit the Scorpions and his “undermining” of the National Prosecuting Authority to avoid having to defend himself in court against innumerable charges. 

“Under Zuma’s rule, the state itself has become increasingly lawless.” 

Zuma’s alleged unethical influence has, Kane-Berman continues, further permeated into the governance of state institutions, with lawlessness in state-controlled organs ranging from the outright criminal to the flouting of procedures. 

“If Zuma’s legacy is not to endure beyond him, a culture and practice of legality will have to be inculcated right across organs of state and agencies of government. 

“[His] successor will require not only the political skill, but also the courage, and the stamina, to arrest and then reverse the state’s slide into lawlessness.

“Three questions arise: does the ANC want, can it produce, and will it support, such a leader? 

This article originally appeared in in the 29 December edition of finweek. Buy and download the magazine here.

We live in a world where facts and fiction get blurred
Who we choose to trust can have a profound impact on our lives. Join thousands of devoted South Africans who look to News24 to bring them news they can trust every day. As we celebrate 25 years, become a News24 subscriber as we strive to keep you informed, inspired and empowered.
Join News24 today
heading
description
username
Show Comments ()
Rand - Dollar
18.92
-0.1%
Rand - Pound
23.91
-0.0%
Rand - Euro
20.45
+0.1%
Rand - Aus dollar
12.35
-0.0%
Rand - Yen
0.13
-0.1%
Platinum
911.00
+1.6%
Palladium
1,008.15
+0.6%
Gold
2,222.89
+1.3%
Silver
24.90
+1.0%
Brent Crude
86.09
-0.2%
Top 40
68,346
+1.0%
All Share
74,536
+0.9%
Resource 10
57,251
+2.9%
Industrial 25
103,936
+0.6%
Financial 15
16,502
-0.1%
All JSE data delayed by at least 15 minutes Iress logo
Company Snapshot
Editorial feedback and complaints

Contact the public editor with feedback for our journalists, complaints, queries or suggestions about articles on News24.

LEARN MORE
Government tenders

Find public sector tender opportunities in South Africa here.

Government tenders
This portal provides access to information on all tenders made by all public sector organisations in all spheres of government.
Browse tenders