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Buhari lays down the law

I’m sitting in a hotel bar in Kano, in Nigeria’s north, when I get a message on my phone. ‘Diezani’s been arrested,’ it says. A short few words but an absolutely enormous story for Nigeria.

The Diezani to whom the message refers is Diezani Alison-Madueke, Nigeria’s minister for petroleum resources under the previous government. She’s reportedly been arrested in London on money laundering and bribery charges by the International Corruption Unit of Britain’s National Crime Agency.

Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is now investigating her at home, after reportedly collaborating with UK authorities on the investigation over the last two years.

For years, speculation about her conduct during the Goodluck Jonathan administration has circulated; that speculation has now crystallised into allegations. It was during Diezani’s tenure that some $20bn went missing from the state’s oil revenues; put in national context, $20bn could buy 434.7m barrels at current oil prices around $46 a barrel. At average production of about 2.1m barrels a day, this represents more than six months of Nigeria’s entire production. It’s the difference between Nigeria being able to start diversifying its economy and not being able to do very much while the oil price is low.

So reports of her arrest are significant for the obvious fact that charges could eventually lead to the return of some funds, if indeed she has those funds.

It’s also important because it shows the colour of President Muhammadu Buhari’s money in his anti-corruption crusade and British Prime Minister David Cameron’s increasing desire for his country to shed its reputation as a haven for laundered cash.

Many in Nigeria had expected the Buhari administration to leave Diezani alone: she’s a close associate of Goodluck Jonathan, and some commentators had supposed that might insulate her from the hunt for missing money. She is one of the biggest scalps that could have been taken, and her arrest will no doubt send shivers down various spines that have until recently been sitting in Nigeria’s senate and gubernatorial villas. The message the EFCC seems to be sending? If we can go after her, we can go after you all.

At the other end of Nigeria’s wealth spectrum, the possible arrest of former senior politicians is cause for celebration for many millions of people. It says that there’s a president in power with action behind his anti-corruption promises. It says there’s a chance that one day they’ll see the return of some of the many, many billions of dollars of oil wealth that should have been changing their lives since Nigeria discovered its crude in the 1950s, but has instead been spent on private planes, lavish parties and pearls that rival the size of ping pong balls.

This could be the beginning of something happening to benefit the many, not the few. It could also be that Diezani isn’t charged or is found innocent of all charges. It could be that not a single dollar is ever returned to Nigeria from whoever is behind the theft of its oil riches. However it plays out, watch very carefully, because it’s going to be a fascinating time.

This article originally appeared in the 15 October 2015 edition of Finweek. Subscribe and buy the magazine here

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