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Cape Town – South African employers report cautiously optimistic hiring intentions for the next three months, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2016.
Of the 755 employers surveyed, 15% expect to increase staffing levels, 6% forecast a decrease and 78% anticipate no change. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation the outlook stands at +9%. Hiring plans are 2 percentage points stronger when compared with the previous quarter and improve by 3 percentage points year-on-year.
“As we move into the last quarter, certain industries experience an expected spike in business associated with the holiday and festive season, possibly allowing for increased employment. This, of course, relies on many factors, including the state of the economy and the strength of the rand,” said Lyndy van den Barselaar, managing director of Manpower SA.
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Regional comparisons
Payrolls are forecast to grow in all five regions during the October to December period. The strongest hiring prospects are reported in the Western Cape, where the Net Employment Outlook stands at +18%. Employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng, with outlooks of +10% and +8% respectively, while the outlook for the Free State is +5%. The most cautious outlook of +3% is reported by employers in the Eastern Cape.
“The Western Capes economy is dominated by the City of Cape Town, which is a hub for non-agricultural economic activity. The city remains attractive to foreign business investors and multinational companies looking to enter Africa, as well as locally based companies looking to expand, which often creates employment opportunities within the region,” explained Van den Barselaar.
“The region is also an extremely popular tourist destination for local and international holiday makers, especially during the festive season. Employers may be anticipating that this influx of travellers will bode well for businesses in their region.”
Hiring intentions
When compared with the previous quarter, hiring intentions improved in four of the five regions, most notably by 9 percentage points in the Western Cape. Elsewhere, outlooks are 4 and 2 percentage points stronger in KwaZulu Natal and the Free State, respectively. However, employers in the Eastern Cape report a decline of 4 percentage points.
Year-on-year, Western Cape employers report a considerable improvement of 9 percentage points. Hiring prospects are 5 percentage points stronger in KwaZulu Natal, while the outlook for the Free State increases by 2 percentage points. Gauteng employers report relatively stable hiring plans, but Eastern Cape employers report a decline of 4 percentage points.
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Sector comparisons
Staffing levels are forecast to increase in all 10 industry sectors during the coming quarter. Wholesale and retail trade sector employers report the strongest hiring prospects with a Net Employment Outlook of +20%. Elsewhere, steady hiring activity is anticipated in the transport, storage and communication sector, with an outlook of +16%; and in both the electricity, gas and water supply sector and the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector, where outlooks stand at +14%.
Public and social sector employers report cautiously optimistic hiring intentions with an outlook of +10%, while some payroll gains are expected in the agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing sector, where the outlook is +5%. Meanwhile, the most cautious hiring intentions are reported for the mining and quarrying sector, with an outlook of +1%.
“The expected hiring gains in the wholesale and retail trade sector are usually expected towards the end of the year, as retail trade increases during the festive season. This may tie into the expected gains in the transport, storage and communication sector, as the inflow of imported products increases, to ensure stock levels are adequate for the increase in retail trade,” explained Van den Barselaar.
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