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Pretoria – South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R2.92bn in March, the SA Revenue Service (Sars) announced on Friday.
This includes trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS). When BLNS trade data is excluded, SA had a trade deficit in March of R6.20bn.
The performance of exports during 2016 will remain largely dependent on the recovery of commodity prices as well the improved competitiveness of manufactured exports following significant currency weakness, although softer global demand will constrain growth, according to Nedbank.
However, any disruptions to domestic production, from power shortages to labour instability, would inhibit the recovery. On the import side, low international oil prices will continue to keep oil imports down, while machinery purchases will continue to moderate as some of the major infrastructure projects near completion. Weak consumer demand will also keep imports in check. However, agricultural imports are likely to remain strong due to the effects of the drought, in its view.
Karl Gotte, head of Standard Bank Commercial Banking, said SA’s trade balance for March 2016 came in at a surplus was not in line with market expectations.
“The economic landscape currently presents numerous challenges for consumers and businesses. The challenges will most likely be seen in commodities and food prices. Manufacturing commodities such as coal, copper, iron ore and steel prices are expected to fall further during the course of the year," he said.
"Due to the impact of the drought, food prices are anticipated to increase by between 20 and 25% in the medium-term. In addition to the stated challenges, it is expected that a petrol price increase in May will negate the gains that have been made by the rand over the past few months.”
In his view, these external pressures are forcing businesses to think differently about how they work and how to manage the ever increasing cost margins.
"It is vital that staff are up-skilled and cross skilled and that resources become multi-purposed in times of economic hardship. Businesses would need to focus on minimising financial wastage to ensure the sustainability of their current operations. They would also need to take a longer term view on investing to ensure the business’ long term sustainability,” he added.
The surplus (including BLNS data) for March 2016 is due to exports of R96.13bn and imports of R93.22bn, improving from a revised deficit of R1.27bn in February 2016. Exports increased from February 2016 to March 2016 by 6.3% and imports increased from February 2016 to March 2016 by 1.6%.
On a year-on-year basis, the surplus is an improvement from the surplus recorded in March 2015 of R1.45bn. Exports of R96.13bn are 4.2% more than the exports recorded in March 2015 of R92.30bn. Imports of R93.22bn are 2.6% more than the imports recorded in March 2015 of R90.85bn.
The cumulative deficit for 2016 of R17.96bn is 39.2% less than the deficit for the comparable period in 2015 of R29.52bn.
In March SA had a trade surplus of R16 063m with the rest of Africa. This is a 12.4% increase in comparison to the surplus recorded in February 2016. As for trade with America, there was a trade deficit of R1 448m – a 44.5% decrease in comparison to the deficit recorded in February 2016. SA also had a trade deficit in March with Asia (a 27.3% increase) and with Europe (a 58.4% increase).
When BLNS data is excluded, the resulting R6.20bn deficit for March 2016 is as a result of exports of R84.30bn and imports of R90.50bn. Exports increased from February 2016 to March 2016 by 6.4% and imports increased from February 2016 to March 2016 by 2.2%. The cumulative deficit for 2016 is R42.40bn compared to R53.99bn in 2015.
Source: SARS
