Retail sales could give Sarb chance to hike rates

Cape Town - Measured in real terms - therefore, at constant 2012 prices - retail trade sales increased by 4.1% year-on-year in February 2016, Statistics SA announced on Wednesday.

The highest annual growth rates were recorded for retailers in pharmaceuticals and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries (7.8%), general dealers (5.5%) and retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (4.2%).

Seasonally adjusted retail trade sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in February 2016. This followed month-on-month changes of -0.7% in January 2016 and 0.1% in December 2015. In the three months ended February 2016, seasonally adjusted retail trade sales increased by 0.9% compared with the previous three months.

Retail trade sales increased by 3.9% in the three months ended February 2016 compared with the three months ended February 2015. The main contributors to this increase were general dealers (4.2%) and retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (5.1%).

According to Nedbank's Economic Unit, the retail sales growth of 4.1 % y-o-y from an upwardly revised 3.6 % (previously 3.1 %) in January, came against the market forecast of 2.6%.
    
Nedbank said consumer spending growth is likely to be subdued in the months ahead on the back of fading disposable incomes, weak confidence and high debt service costs.

"Higher than expected retail sales numbers are comforting, but the economy in general remains very weak. However, the MPC is likely to focus on the upside risks to inflation, hiking interest rates further at each of the next two policy meetings in May and July before pausing for the rest of the year," the unit said.

According to Reuters, the retail sales grew above expectations in February, suggesting the SA Reserve Bank (Sarb) might have scope to hike interest rates further at its next policy meeting.

The rand briefly climbed to a session high of R14.6650 to the dollar after the data was released, before giving up the gains mainly due to broad based dollar strength on global markets.

"The better than expected performance of February retail sales is somewhat encouraging and suggests some underlying resilience in the South African consumer," BNP Paribas Securities economist Jeffrey Schultz told Reuters.