Share

Migration stats temper ‘white flight’

A little-noticed revision of population estimates has dramatically lowered the previously estimated scale of the exodus of white people from South Africa in the first decade of democracy.

At the same time, it seems the amount of migration into South Africa by black people has, up to now, been vastly overstated for the same period.

When Stats SA published its annual mid-year population estimate last month, the net migration numbers looked different from those in previous years.

The estimate for net emigration by white people has dropped by 36%.

Instead of emigration lowering the white population by 440 000 between 1986 and 2006, as previously stated, the white flight effect is now believed to have been closer to 280 000.

The new estimate for net immigration by black people in that period has changed by a similar degree.

Instead of immigration adding 1.5 million people to the black population, this is now estimated to have been closer to 1 million.

Estimates for the decade up to last year have also been revised, but to a less extreme degree.

Indian and coloured migration estimates did not undergo similarly dramatic revisions.

In a response to a City Press query last week, Stats SA explained that the migration numbers were, to some extent, inevitably a guesstimate.

“The migration assumptions in the report are indeed plausible assumptions in the face of the lack of more empirical data,” it said.

The migration estimates are ultimately the outcome of the other factors that influence the population – fertility and mortality.

The reason the numbers changed was to make the population estimates by race square up with the population structure recorded in the 2011 national census, given what is known about births and deaths.

If new data contradicts the old fertility rates or mortality rates, Stats SA has to alter its assumptions about migration to make the census numbers make sense.

“Estimation of the population is a culmination of fertility and mortality, as well as migration over time,” said Stats SA.

“Recently, there has been evidence to suggest that there has been a fluctuation of fertility in between the censuses.

“Bearing in mind the changes in fertility assumptions, it is expected that the assumptions of either mortality and/or migration would also likely change if we are to reach the census 2011 age and sex population structure,” Stats SA added.

More accurate measures of migration, especially by race, are “indeed very much lacking in South Africa”.

TALK TO US

Do you think the new figures accurately reflect SA’s migration patterns?

SMS us on 35697 using the keyword FLIGHT and tell us what you think. Please include your name and province. SMSes cost R1.50

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE UPDATE: Get Fin24's top morning business news and opinions in your inbox.

Read Fin24's top stories trending on Twitter:

We live in a world where facts and fiction get blurred
Who we choose to trust can have a profound impact on our lives. Join thousands of devoted South Africans who look to News24 to bring them news they can trust every day. As we celebrate 25 years, become a News24 subscriber as we strive to keep you informed, inspired and empowered.
Join News24 today
heading
description
username
Show Comments ()
Rand - Dollar
18.97
-0.3%
Rand - Pound
23.97
-0.3%
Rand - Euro
20.48
-0.1%
Rand - Aus dollar
12.36
-0.1%
Rand - Yen
0.13
-0.4%
Platinum
907.94
+1.2%
Palladium
1,014.30
+1.3%
Gold
2,215.39
+0.9%
Silver
24.91
+1.1%
Brent Crude
86.09
-0.2%
Top 40
68,346
+1.0%
All Share
74,536
+0.9%
Resource 10
57,251
+2.9%
Industrial 25
103,936
+0.6%
Financial 15
16,502
-0.1%
All JSE data delayed by at least 15 minutes Iress logo
Company Snapshot
Editorial feedback and complaints

Contact the public editor with feedback for our journalists, complaints, queries or suggestions about articles on News24.

LEARN MORE
Government tenders

Find public sector tender opportunities in South Africa here.

Government tenders
This portal provides access to information on all tenders made by all public sector organisations in all spheres of government.
Browse tenders