Cape Town - SA would be bankrupt within a week under the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) as the party does not realise the world is a global village, political commentator Justice Malala said at a State of the Nation breakfast hosted by Deloitte on Friday.
At the same time Malala thinks the EFF's statements are good for competitive politics, while the ANC has become "schizophrenic" in its response to the party. He believes that besides economic growth, South Africa's toxic politics is also a problem for the country.
"The good news is that civil society is waking up and that we have competitive politics. The reality of protest has arrived and the impact of political events on our economy is that some now say economic growth of even just 0.8% could be expected," said Malala.
"If we don't fix things and keep an eye on the ball in the current economic and political turbulence, our plane could go down."
As for the upcoming municipal elections, Malala thinks Julius Malema and his EFF will stand to gain the most - perhaps even up to 12% of the total - and do very well in areas around Tshwane, for example.
"It is of key importance to remember that when people see the ANC vote for the expropriation bill, it is regarded as a sign that government wants to intervene in the economy. The ANC wants to be an activist in the economy," said Malala.
He believes the main reason why rating agency Moody's did not downgrade SA lies in the country's institutions, which are still perceived to be working.
"Keeping an eye on our institutions is, therefore, key for SA's economy," said Malala. "That is why it is a red flag for me that the South African Revenue Service seems to be in trouble."
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In his view, "many" are still going after Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and inside the ANC there is "a massive battle for the heart of the party". He believes this battle is between the factions of President Jacob Zuma and Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, and thinks these dramatic events will continue until December 2017.
"We must, however, be clear what the impact of our politics is on the economy," said Malala.
"Unemployment figures show it is actually at 36%, so 8.9 million people cannot find work. It is a major factor. I think the protests we have seen so far will be nothing like what is still to come in the run-up of the election."
There have been an estimated 14 700 service delivery unrests in SA, for example.
"The elections will be the most hotly contested to date. The ANC was the centre of politics, but has been on a downward trajectory the last ten years," continued Malala.
"Other trends I see is that power has moved from the ANC to civil society. The ANC is not the only determinant any more."
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He added he is aware that the EFF is seen by many as a scary issue, and he expects business will come under even more pressure due to complaints that they are not investing enough.
"Many people wonder why Zuma has not stepped down after the Constitutional Court decision, but remember the real power sits in the ANC's National Executive Council and 75% of the members have been elected on the Zuma ticket," explained Malala.
"If Zuma goes, they will most likely go because they have no real support outside of his sphere. He will only step down if there is a clear successor and so far there is not."
Lastly, Malala expects much more talk about race and racism in SA, and he thinks there will be even more eruptions around this issue as the 1994 arrangements are being questioned.
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