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Cape Town – What should business do about the current events surrounding Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan?
This question was posed by political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi on Thursday at the MSCI South Africa Real Estate Investment Conference in Cape Town amid a renewed attempt from the Hawks to charge Gordhan and three of his former colleagues at the SA Revenue Service for their role in a so-called rogue unit.
The Hawks had instructed Gordhan, former Sars deputy commissioner Ivan Pillay, group executive Johann van Loggerenberg and initial head of the investigative unit, Andries van Rensburg to present themselves to their office in Pretoria on Thursday, so they could take a warning statement from them.
The unit wanted to question Gordhan regarding his alleged contraventions of the National Strategic Intelligence Act and Public Finance Management Act. These related to his approval, as finance minister, of Sars commissioner Ivan Pillay's early retirement in 2010, and to the creation of an intelligence unit within Sars.
In a statement on Wednesday, Gordhan said he had taken legal advice and had no obligation to present himself to the Hawks. He said he should be left to do his job in a difficult economic environment.
READ: FULL STATEMENT: Why Gordhan won't meet the Hawks
Gordhan was Sars commissioner between 1999 and 2009. During this period the so-called rogue unit was allegedly established, which was allegedly involved in illegal intelligence gathering.
Matshiqi believes business should be aware of the important link between the actions it decides to take and the kind of political leaders produced in SA.
“We must analyse reality, otherwise political analyses only become sets of personal wishes and desires,” said Matshiqi.
In his view, if Gordhan “has a case to answer” to the Hawks, he must face them. “After all, the same was demanded from President Jacob Zuma in a court case in the past,” said Matshiqi. At the same time, he feels the rule of law is currently being “prostituted”.
READ: Gordhan speaks out on patronage, corruption
Downgrade on the cards
Matshiqi said one of the consequences of a “Gordhangate” would be a downgrade of South Africa by rating agencies at the end of the year.
“If you have been making bets against a downgrade in December, then demand your money back as, at this rate, we will be. It will also mean economic policy will be imposed on SA by external actors like ratings agencies,” he said.
“If all this rubbish continues, we might also look at the SA economy going into negative growth and the rand becoming even more anaemic.”
READ: Gordhan exit will make junk status inevitable - actuarial scientist
In his view, SA citizens now have a choice to either go into “self-indulgence and depression” or do what voters did on August 3, by taking matters into their own hands and actively saying they have now had enough and won't allow the economy to be destroyed.
Politics vs economy
“Bill Clinton said ‘it is all about the economy, stupid’, while in SA I would say ‘it is all about politics, stupid’. If you don’t get a handle on understanding the political environment of business in SA, you are in danger of becoming extinct,” he said.
“SA is pregnant with both potential and danger, depending on whether we are prepared to make tough short-term decisions to open up opportunities over the medium term and make more tough decisions for more opportunities over the long term.”
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