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Johannesburg - President Jacob Zuma will serve a second term and South Africa's economic policy will not change significantly in the foreseeable future.
This is according to Moeletsi Mbeki, deputy chair of the South African Institute for International Affairs (SAIIA).
Mbeki was a guest speaker at the annual conference presented by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at the University of Stellenbosch.
Zuma’s specific skill is political intrigue because, while he is a very good intelligence operator, he is essentially an implementer, said Mbeki.
Zuma is fortunately aware of his own limitations and is not interested in changing South Africa’s economic policy, Mbeki said.
According to Mbeki, Zuma will be re-elected president at the 2012 ANC get-together. South Africans should therefore not expect any significant changes to economic policy.
The ANC’s support base among the unemployed poor will also contribute to a lack of real change in economic policies, he said.
The ANC depends on the unemployed lowest class to retain power; indeed this is its major support base. But this base could also change its preferences – and that is precisely what happened to some degree in the local elections, Mbeki said.
South Africa's economic policy is stable because those very unemployed people require a predictable and stable economy.
Without a stable economy, high inflation would, for instance, erode the purchasing power of welfare grants, he said.
Mbeki acknowledged that the vast majority of taxpayers exercised no influence on the ANC.
Government naturally faces a temptation to increase taxes and government spending for political ends.
Government would then have to incur additional debt to meet the expenses. Mbeki could see South Africa following in the footsteps of the Greece debt crisis.
According to Mbeki the ANC is undergoing a transformation similar to that of Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu-PF party.
What is more, the DA is threatening the ANC’s traditional unemployed support base.
The ANC, he says, is morphing into a rural party like Zanu-PF, and experiencing a systematic loss of support.
In contrast, the greater support for the DA in metropolitan areas shows that it is gaining power in places where economic power is based, said Mbeki.
This is according to Moeletsi Mbeki, deputy chair of the South African Institute for International Affairs (SAIIA).
Mbeki was a guest speaker at the annual conference presented by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at the University of Stellenbosch.
Zuma’s specific skill is political intrigue because, while he is a very good intelligence operator, he is essentially an implementer, said Mbeki.
Zuma is fortunately aware of his own limitations and is not interested in changing South Africa’s economic policy, Mbeki said.
According to Mbeki, Zuma will be re-elected president at the 2012 ANC get-together. South Africans should therefore not expect any significant changes to economic policy.
The ANC’s support base among the unemployed poor will also contribute to a lack of real change in economic policies, he said.
The ANC depends on the unemployed lowest class to retain power; indeed this is its major support base. But this base could also change its preferences – and that is precisely what happened to some degree in the local elections, Mbeki said.
South Africa's economic policy is stable because those very unemployed people require a predictable and stable economy.
Without a stable economy, high inflation would, for instance, erode the purchasing power of welfare grants, he said.
Mbeki acknowledged that the vast majority of taxpayers exercised no influence on the ANC.
Government naturally faces a temptation to increase taxes and government spending for political ends.
Government would then have to incur additional debt to meet the expenses. Mbeki could see South Africa following in the footsteps of the Greece debt crisis.
According to Mbeki the ANC is undergoing a transformation similar to that of Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu-PF party.
What is more, the DA is threatening the ANC’s traditional unemployed support base.
The ANC, he says, is morphing into a rural party like Zanu-PF, and experiencing a systematic loss of support.
In contrast, the greater support for the DA in metropolitan areas shows that it is gaining power in places where economic power is based, said Mbeki.
