Singapore - Shanghai base metals fell by their daily limits on Friday, chasing steep falls on the London Metal Exchange, which has seen copper down for seven straight days in a worsening economic climate.
Traders now expect the Shanghai Futures Exchange to suspend Monday's aluminium trade after the metal hit its downside threshold for three days running, slipping to its weakest since the contract was launched 15 years ago.
The exchange said it would make an announcement about which contracts would be suspended after the market closes.
Shanghai aluminium fell 6% from Thursday's settlement to 10 580 yuan, while copper, dropped 5% to 24 700 yuan, its weakest in 4½-years, and zinc fell by 6% to 8 650 yuan and near October's benchmark contract low of 8 620 yuan.
London Metal Exchange copper fell 2.1% to $3 200, its seventh day of falls, while zinc slid 3.5% to $1 105.
China's copper consumption will grow by 5% in 2009 and will remain between 5% and 6% in the next few years versus double-digit percentage rises in recent years, said Shiela Ju, deputy manager for the international department of China's state-owned Antaike research group.
She predicted copper consumption would be about 4.85 million tonnes this year, and would grow to 5.1 million tonnes in 2009.
Speculation of major contraction in economy
"The export products will be impacted seriously this year and next year," she told copper market players in the Chilean capital Santiago.
China, which consumes around a quarter of the world's copper, is seen as the key to the direction for base metals, which have crashed spectacularly out of a six-year rally since hitting record highs in July.
"Chinese growth is slowing - some are even talking about a 30% chance of a contraction next year. My feeling is that GDP growth will be on the low side, maybe between 6% and 8%," said MF Global commodities analyst Edward Meir.
He added that the market was gearing up for the non-farm payrolls data later on Friday, but warned there was a chance that the decrease, forecast around 300 000, could be greater than expected and the year-long recession in the United States showed no signs of ending.
"Usually recessions don't last that long. Other than the Great Depression and the 1973-74 recession, which lasted 18 months, recessions usually last less than a year."
"Equities markets tend to rally 3 to 6 months before the recovery in the economy, but we have not seen that yet, which tells me we have some ways to go before we are out of this." Other metals also fell.
London Metal Exchange aluminium touched a 4½-year low of $1 564, down from $1 586 on Thursday.
Weak demand continued to show up in LME stocks data, which jumped 19 500 tonnes to 1.86 million tonnes, the highest since November 1994 and enough to supply the world for 18 or 19 days.
Copper stocks also rose to 292 975 tonnes, the highest level since early 2004 and sufficient for around six days of global consumption.
- Reuters