Zim maize 'to help inflation'

President Robert Mugabe's government has not given a crop forecast for 2006, and although officials say the southern African country expects a better harvest than the previous year this would be the first time in years that Zimbabwe has produced enough to meet its total needs, also estimated at 1.8 million tonnes.

Food deficit

Aid agencies have warned of another food deficit in the country, which has suffered shortages in the past five years, saying the lack of inputs such as seed and fertiliser has undermined production in the just-ended summer cropping season.

The government last month warned aid agencies against conducting so-called back-door crop assessments saying only the Central Statistical Office (CSO) had the sole mandate to do so.

"Maize output is expected to be 1.8 million tonnes. Half will be left in homes," the Sunday Mail said quoting an unnamed government source.

"About 900 000 tonnes are expected to be delivered to the GMB (state owned Grain Marketing Board). And of that, half will go to national strategic reserves," the paper said.

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service sees a harvest of 900 000 tonnes of the staple maize crop, up from 550 000 last year.

Worsening supplies

In January the government branded the US-based Famine Early Warning System Network, which releases regular reports on Zimbabwe's food balance, as hostile after the group said the country faced worsening supply problems.

The CSO said last Friday annual inflation in April had risen to 1042.9% from 913.6% the previous month, with food prices accounting for a greater part of the jump.

Inflation has emerged as the major enemy of Mugabe's government, dramatising the severity of an economic crisis which analysts say could trigger anti-government protests.

But the Sunday Mail sought to calm a nation in the throes of a deep eight-year recession saying inflation would tumble.

"Zimbabweans should not be alarmed by the 1 000% inflation rate ... as the economy is set to be revived because of a combination of natural factors and Government-initiated policies unveiled in the past few weeks," it said.

"...Food inflation, which accounted for a third of the figures, will be reversed by the good summer cropping harvest."

Zimbabwe's annual maize output has fallen sharply in the past five years because of drought and Aids, which is killing off peasant farmers in the prime of life.

Critics also point to Mugabe's controversial seizures of white-owned farms for blacks, which analysts say has seen commercial agricultural output plunge more than 60%.