Harare - For many Zimbabweans, the chief worry is not political violence or president Robert Mugabe's iron hold on power. It's out-of-control inflation that puts anything more than a single daily meal beyond reach.
Underlying the current political crisis is an economic meltdown that has caused a shortage of food and all basic goods, while leaving the people an abundance of zeros.
The official inflation rate was put at 165 000% by the
government in February, but independent estimates put the real figure closer to 4 million percent.
Zimbabwe is believed to be the only country in the world that now carries out routine financial transactions in dizzying set of quadrillions - one quadrillion is a 1 with 15 zeros behind it, or 1 000 000 000 000 000.
"It's gone completely crazy. Our computers and calculators can't
deal with all the zeros even on the cheapest products," said Harare economic analyst David Moyo.
Bread disappeared
Brokers said this week that the Zimbabwe dollar broke the barrier of 10 billion to a single US dollar in direct bank buying, while in electronic transfers, it exceeded 20 billion Zimbabwe dollars to US$10.
Bread has disappeared from stores. Previously, a loaf in a
supermarket cost 2 billion Zimbabwe dollars (R1.60), or 15 billion Zimbabwe dollars (R12) on the black market, where prices of scarce items can vary up to 10 times higher.
A shopper lucky enough to find milk will spend Z$3bn (R2.37) for about half a liter. A tray of 30 eggs, also scarce, can bought in a store for Z$45bn (R36).
Butter is hard to find, but a brick of margarine will cost Z$25bn (R20) and a pack of 10 biscuits costs Z$19bn (R15).
Most stores and business across Zimbabwe have already knocked six zeros off price tags, showing Z$45 000 for 900g of scarce low grade beef - but at the cash register, it's tallied back at Z$45bn (R36).
Moyo said a car battery was priced Monday at 2.4 trillion dollars (R1 896), a tenfold increase in the past two weeks.
The largest Zimbabwean bill in circulation is a 50 billion note (R40), while the smallest currency unit a one cent coin, which buys nothing by itself.
The sight of a person carrying brick-sized wads of notes - or even wheelbarrows full of cash - is less common now, because consumers are limited to withdrawing 25 billion dollars a day from the bank, usually in five 5 billion-dollar notes.
The highest amount a check can be made out for is 900 billion
dollars (R711) but many people complain that there is not enough
room in the space provided to write out the high figure.
"Whatever happens on the political front, the economy has to be
addressed, which no one seems to be doing right now," Moyo said.
Since the first round of national elections on March 29, shortages of basic goods have worsened, public services have come to virtual standstill, power and water outages have continued daily, and streets and highways have crumbled.
The price of gasoline has soared, pushing up bus and commuter fares to more than what many workers earn in a day.
Production lines have been halted as factories report mounting
absenteeism.
"We certainly can't go on like this. Something's got to give before too long. Everyone hoped we could move on once the election was over," said James Davis, a factory manager.
Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai claims to have finished first in the first round of presidential voting March 29, although he did not win the simple majority needed to avoid a runoff, scheduled for Friday.
A campaign of violence and intimidation caused Tsvangirai on Sunday to quit the runoff, saying it would not be credible. That has cleared the way for Mugabe, 84, to continue his 28-year rule, despite mounting condemnation from the international community, including even loyal African allies who say the former independence hero has become a despot who has bankrupted the nation.
Things can get worse
"If they think they can tame inflation with an illegitimate election and no international support, let them try," said Tsvangirai spokesperson George Sibotshiwe.
So far, Mugabe has not moved to try to put the country back on a
sound financial footing. The problem, analysts say, is that few options are available.
"If Mugabe continues, the economy will continue to decline," said Brian Raftopolous, a South African-based economic researcher. "Mugabe has no solutions."
Mugabe blames the economic woes on Western sanctions and the
withdrawal of funding by international banking institutions. While these institutions and Western governments have expressed readiness to assist with Zimbabwe's economic recovery, this is unlikely as long as Mugabe is in power.
"As bad as things are, it can get worse," said Raftopolous.
Robert Rotberg, director of Harvard's Kennedy School program on
Intrastate Conflict, said that while sanctions and boycotts may not convince Mugabe to loosen his grip on power, they are sure to sway public opinion and possibly change the minds of top military leaders.
Without his security apparatus and their intimidation tactics,
Mugabe's power "could vanish overnight," said Rotberg, who wrote a column in the Boston Globe on Wednesday comparing the current situation in Zimbabwe to Idi Amin's Uganda.
Rotberg said bordering countries could "effectively bottle Mugabe up" by banning Zimbabwean aircraft from flying over their airspace and curtailing electricity deliveries to the landlocked country. The UN, African Union and Southern African Development Community could then push him aside to take over during a transitional period until they can ensure a free and fair election.
"Tightening the noose will make the people around Mugabe realize
that this ship is really sinking, and they should get off," he said.
- Sapa-AP