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London - The Bank of England may have to lower the 7% unemployment rate threshold that it has said would trigger discussion of an interest rate rise, according to a growing minority of economists.
The latest results, from a survey taken in the first few days of the new year, follow months of data showing an economy recovering smartly and adding more new jobs than many had predicted even just a few months ago.
While the consensus remains that rates will rise from their record low of 0.5% in the second half of next year, 13 of 41 economists asked said the BoE would need to drop its 7% jobless rate threshold before it raised rates.
That is up from six in a bigger sample of 53 taken one month ago, suggesting that the latest responses, gathered while some are still on holiday, might be understating the number who think the BoE may soon be compelled to alter its guidance.
The jobless rate currently stands at 7.4%.
While the Monetary Policy Committee has made clear that a fall to 7% will not necessarily trigger a rate rise, a drop to that level without any further guidance would likely put upward pressure on market interest rates and could lead to cutbacks in household and business spending.
While the UK economy is the envy of much of Europe, with a respectable growth rate and a rebounding labour market, its durability is still being debated, particularly given how much it relies on household debt and rising house prices.
