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In their report released this week, the IMF clearly fingers two well-worn areas of concern regarding economic policy and performance – namely the role of trade unions and ongoing policy uncertainty, and therefore the urgent need to implement the National Development Plan (NDP).
These two factors are largely blamed for
the country’s poor growth performance now expected to hobble from around 2%
this year to 3.5% in 2014/5.
In addition, and flowing from these issues,
is the vulnerability of the country to capital outflows – especially at a time
when global uncertainty caused by the imminent roll-back of tapering by the US
Fed has been negatively affecting emerging market currencies.
What is crucial here is that while there are
external (global) factors at play, there are a host of country-specific domestic
factors that if not corrected, will exacerbate the global pressures.
A reversal of capital inflows is therefore not
only a result of the vagaries of the inter-connected global environment led by
Federal Reserve chairperson Ben Bernanke, it is clearly a direct consequence of domestic policy failure and
political/labour instability.
So, listening to the reaction from both government (represented by National Treasury) and that of Cosatu's Patrick Craven
leaves the distinct impression that policy disunity continues unabated and shows
no signs of consensus.
Clearly, Treasury was at pains to admit
that the IMF’s report was being addressed. This included a commitment to
improved relations between government, business and labour as well as the
intended rollout of the NDP.
But listening to Cosatu’s reaction left
little to the imagination on just how tough it will be to accomplish the
much-needed policy clarity to move forward.
Craven rejected the IMF report virtually in
its entirety. He lambasted the IMF for serving the interests of big capital and
questioned its legitimacy as a viable advisory body, due to its admittedly
controversial use of ‘structural adjustment’ policies in the past that had
often undermined economic recovery and perpetuated inequality.
For all of the discrediting of the IMF,
Craven’s main criticism was kept for the NDP, which he felt should be thoroughly
rejected as if implemented it would be an “absolute disaster”. Given other Cosatu affiliates' similar
rejection of the NDP, perhaps this was no real surprise.
Politically though, this issue has just
made Election 2014 that bit more difficult for the ANC – and South Africa.
For any political party – and especially in
a more competitive and crowded electoral environment - finding a clear, concise
and meaningful policy manifesto is critical. Election manifestos are the
backbone of party performance and also party unity.
Already the ANC’s Jeff
Radebe has said that the ANC’s draft manifesto will largely be based on the NDP,
clearly throwing down the gauntlet to Cosatu and others in the party who reject
it.
So, in the final analysis, the ANC looks
set to offer its voters an election manifesto that it itself has failed to
reach consensus on.
This bodes serious difficulties for the ruling party in
explaining policy to its voters and – perhaps more importantly – motivating its
party faithful to campaign tirelessly in what will be a much tougher campaign
for the ruling party than ever before.
With barely eight months to go before the
2014 elections, it seems unlikely that that NDP will suddenly find broad consensus within
the alliance. And if populist upstarts like Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters gain traction,
the moderation and common sense of Trevor Manuel’s plan might become an even
tougher document to explain.
This means that Election 2014 devoid of
policy consensus within the ANC has the danger of dissolving into a quasi-nationalistic
debate peppered with thinly veiled racial epithets and damaging rhetoric pointed
at the relatively easy targets of big business, liberals and stubborn white
minority atavists.
Ultimately, the one unifying factor that
still exists within the alliance is the desire to cling to power. Under this
scenario, power can trump policy.
Putting the seeming irreconcilable
differences aside for the campaign means that retaining power becomes
all-important. This poses a distinct danger for the political debate and the
maturation of our democracy going forward.
After 20 years of service delivery deficiencies, South
Africans should be debating policy. But there is a chance that we might return
to the politics of emotion, as policy consensus remains illusive and winning
becomes the end game. Getting back to the real issues can become mired in the
damage this causes.
It will be incumbent on ANC pragmatists and
the broader opposition to fight this tendency - otherwise it won’t just be
foreign capital that leaves our shores.
- Fin24
*Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.
