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Wealth washing away

HONEY, we shrunk the winelands! By 2050, our traditional wine-growing region may have reduced by as much as half, according to a recent study released by the UK’s Conservation International.

Apparently, wine farmers in South Africa have already begun to look at other parts of the country – like KwaZulu-Natal – for wine-growing options.

I’ve been reading Tropics of Chaos, by well-known international journalist Christian Parenti (Nation Books 2012).

He whizzed around the world, visiting the hotspots – East Africa, India, South America and Central Asia – where climate change intersects with other factors, creating violent conflict.

Here’s a quote about Kenya: “Though Kenya is suffering more droughts in recent decades, it is actually receiving greater amounts of precipitation. But the rainfall is arriving in sudden bursts, massive shocks in which the rain falls hard and all at once rather than gradually over a season.

"This brings flooding that strips away topsoil, followed by drought. ‘We see it here from the weather station reports,’ says Muhundi. ‘Extreme weather events are more frequent, like the severe 1997-1998 floods and the 1999-2000 drought.’

"In short, the clockwork rains on which Kenyan society depends are out of sync.”

This is exactly what I heard at COP17 in December 2011.

Farmers had travelled to the event from Zambia, Malawi, Kenya and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa.

They were already experiencing devastating losses, as downpours at the "wrong" time of year washed away seedlings, or crops failed in prolonged periods of rainless weather in what used to be the rainy season.

Last year, I spoke to a scientist with the CSIR who has been working with farmers in Limpopo, and she told me the same things are happening there.

Farmers are having to guesstimate when to plant as temperatures are unpredictable, and if seedlings are still young when a disastrously hot day happens, a few hours of 40 degree heat can kill whole fields.

If the young plants survive, a huge downpour can sweep the whole lot away, an experience many have had, and some repeatedly.

There’s a limit to how many seeds each small farmer has in store to replant lost crops, and few can afford to buy more once those are gone.

I’m hyper-aware of temperatures and rain, perhaps because I grew up in a farming community where rain at the right time is the difference between prosperity and bankruptcy. 

All through our last few summers, I’ve winced every time a friend or a radio host said breezily: “What glorious weather we’re having!”

Gauteng has certainly had higher temperatures, quite a bit higher than we traditionally experienced in the mid-20th century, according to the records I have access to; and we have also had less rain.

Not that ordinary people in their swivel chairs and 4x4s experience it as such.

We’ve had a few huge downpours, and those linger in the memory, so you’ll hear people exclaim about the rainy weather we’ve had – just as people remember a winter when it snowed as desperately cold, even though most of the winter the temperatures were actually above normal.

Apart from re-imagining ourselves as a country with a wine route in KZN or the northern Free State, what are we doing to prepare ourselves for the changes that are already having an impact on our country?

And please, let’s forget the idea that climate change is not happening: yes, there are some very clever people – clever with words and juggling numbers – who will try to persuade you otherwise.

But there are literally tens of thousands of MUCH brighter people, some of whom I’ve had the privilege of interviewing, who have done and are doing hundreds of thousands of research projects in the field of climate science and related fields, who will tell you a very different story.

The time for arguments about WHETHER it’s happening is over: what we need to talk about now is HOW – how are we going to adapt and cope?

And in South Africa, as with much of Africa, this is quickly becoming critical.

Without those waving fields of amber mielies, and the nodding heads of yellow sunflowers, where will our agri-industry be – along with any hope of food security?

Who is doing the hard thinking about where to shift those fields when they will no longer support the crop? What kind of new crops should we consider that can handle droughts and floods if necessary?

What about our wildlife, which supports our crucial tourism industry? Something over half the species in the Kruger National Park are at risk, I understand – will tourists still come to see a few desiccated shrubs browsed by the hardier antelope?

And what about water? Crucial to industry and human life, you may recall.

We are already a water-stressed country; we need to think about how to manage when much more of our minimal annual rainfall comes in the form of massive floods such as those that send water spreading out alongside the Orange River a year or two back, or the floods that wrought so much damage in Newcastle area.

How can we a) prevent that heavy rainfall from causing damage and washing away tons of topsoil, road surfaces and bridges; and b) slow it and capture it to store for use?

If anybody knows of work being done to anticipate these imminent threats, I’d love to hear about it.

 - Fin24

*Mandi Smallhorne is a versatile journalist and editor. Views expressed are her own.



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