Publications
Partners
Johannesburg - The unexpected trade surplus in December could help to narrow South Africa's current account deficit to much less than previously forecast.
Statistics published by the South African Revenue Service on Friday show a surplus of R3.7bn in December. In November a trade deficit of R2.5bn was recorded.
The consensus forecast of twelve economists interviewed by Bloomberg was a R0.3bn deficit.
Although Treasury predicts a current account deficit of 5.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP), the gap is expected to be considerably smaller.
On Friday Rand Merchant Bank said that it had reduced its forecast to 4.5% of GDP for 2009, with a slight weakening to 5% for 2010. Nedbank scaled down its forecast to a deficit of less than 4% of GDP.
Although imports traditionally dwindle in December as factories close their doors, exports are generally not that affected by the Christmas period.
There is generally a trade surplus in December, largely because imports dry up. But mines are still exporting, points out Investec economist Annabel Bishop. It's also important to remember that oil prices softened somewhat in December as the rand strengthened.
Trade figures are extremely volatile and a rather weak indication of the state of the economy, Bishop explains.
In December imports declined by 14% month on month, to R41.7bn. Asia, with exports to South Africa totalling R19.1bn, is by far the biggest supplier to our market.
An increase in imports was recorded in only two product sectors. Mineral products, chiefly oil, rose 20%, and precious stones, pearls, semi-precious stones, precious metals and coins, gained 2%.
The importation of chemicals, textiles and textile goods, base metals, vehicles and vehicle kits declined dramatically. Exports retreated 1% month on month to R45.4bn.
Exports of vegetables, minerals, wood and paper picked up steadily.
Vegetable exports were 96% up in December to R1.4bn.
Total imports last year were 26% down to R541.2bn, while total exports of R515.4bn were 21% less than in 2008.
The year 2008 was however exceptional, with imports and exports increasing by 30% and 35% respectively.
Although the recession had a negative effect on trade in 2009, the statistics compare well with those of 2007. Imports in 2009 were about 4% and exports about 4.9% higher than in 2007.
In 2009 Asia was South Africa's major trading partner. Some 43% of the year's imports came from Asia, while that region also surpassed Europe as the largest market for South African exports, receiving 31.2% of our wares.
- Sake24.com
For more business news in Afrikaans, go to Sake24.com.
