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Trade deficit surprise

Johannesburg - Trade statistics for January recorded a trade deficit of R4.9bn, compared to a trade surplus of R10.3bn in December, the SA Revenue Service (Sars) said on Monday.

January's deficit was due to a decrease in exports of 17% and an increase in imports of 14%.

Exports for January of R44.8bn and imports of R49.7bn resulted in a deficit of R4.9bn, Sars said in a statement.

Last January a deficit of R3.4bn was recorded.

"The trade deficit for January 2011 was buoyed by higher commodity imports, specifically in machinery and electrical appliances, original equipment components and products of the chemicals or allied industries," Sars said.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expected the trade account to register a R1.4bn surplus in January.

According to Peter Attard Montalto, emerging market economist from Nomura, the deficit is larger than expected.

"Imports grew very strongly on the month while exports fell sharply too. While there are a lot of seasonals in January, we can see a positive continued recovery in domestic demand from import growth.
 
“Such a deficit would have been a small - though important - marginal player on a weaker rand. Remember, we see the current account turning around very sharply this year as the economy recovers.”

The rand was trading at R6.9826 against the dollar at 14:11, after earlier weakening to R6.9885 from R6.9815 before the data was released at 14:00. The yield on the 2015 government bond was at 7.79% from 7.795% prior to the release.




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