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Trade deficit slashed on data adjustment

Johannesburg - South Africa has cut its 2012 trade deficit to about a third of the previously stated shortfall after adjusting the data to incorporate trade with its neighbours, the national revenue service said on Thursday.

The revision will likely reduce the current account gap, which has persisted at around 6% of gross domestic product and piled pressure on the rand.

The currency firmed after the South African Revenue Service (Sars) said it had revised down the 2012 trade gap to R34.6bn from a previous R116.9bn after adding the positive balance with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS).

It also halved the cumulative shortfall for the year to September to about R64bn.

"The view is... that direct trade within the BLNS countries should be included in the calculation of the monthly trade statistics to provide a more accurate reflection of South Africa's trade," Sars said.

Historically, transactions with the four countries have not been included in the trade statistics because of the free flow of trade under the Southern African Customs Union.

With the adjustments, South Africa's R24.6bn trade deficit for 2011 has turned into a R44bn surplus.

Earlier, government sources told Reuters the adjustments were expected to have an impact on recent GDP numbers.

In his mini budget last month, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan cut 2013 GDP growth expectations to 2.1% from the 2.7% forecast earlier, but vowed to keep state spending in check.

Revised balance of payments data will be finalised in the next few weeks and published in the Reserve Bank's quarterly bulletin on December 3, the central bank said in a statement.

South Africa has grappled with chronically wide trade deficits as it slowly recovers from a recession in 2009 when demand from key markets like Europe withered, leading to a yawning current account gap currently seen averaging 6.4% of GDP through to 2015.

The timing of the trade adjustments could be aimed at deflecting the negative impact of South Africa's inclusion among the "fragile five" economies seen by market analysts as most vulnerable to a withdrawal of US monetary stimulus.

"We are very suspicious of the timing now - when government is very annoyed at its inclusion as a stressed country and a 'taper target'," said Nomura analyst Peter Attard Montalto.
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