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WITH the 2014 elections slated for early May next year, a nine-month period of policy paralysis is upon us.
And, given the extent to which internal ANC factionalism has dominated our political and economic discourse since Mangaung, this paralysis has already been deeply embedded.
Around the world, elections increase political tensions. The fear of losing support (and even power) normally consumes so much energy on the part of the incumbents that this leaves little room for policy development or implementation.
And not wanting to alienate any fragile faction within the ruling party always puts a break on any more risky policy enactment and execution.
South Africa therefore enters the pre-2014 period in such a milieu – unable to develop its key National Development Plan (NDP) as the ruling alliance continues to grapple with personality and power-related political shenanigans.
Adopted at Mangaung, the NDP was well-positioned (warts and all) to restore effective governance to the country and in particular to turn around an ineffective state bureaucracy that had become the worst example of what cadre-deployment can do to an administration.
But no sooner was Mangaung over then the knives were out for the plan. Clearly, the strongest opposition came from the more leftist elements within Cosatu who strongly opposed any attempts to even vaguely tamper with the current labour regime.
By mid-year, the plan had become largely unhinged and in danger of drifting further away from ever being implemented.
However, there is a certain urgency in the minds of many within the ANC to rectify this. Clearly, further threats of rating agency downgrades prey on the mind of Reserve Bank governor Gill Marcus. And the last 9 months could only have been a very frustrating time for Trevor Manuel, under whose watch the plan was conceived.
For over two years, the ANC had been side-tracked by the debilitating nationalisation policy debates initiated by Julius Malema. Since Mangaung it’s been the unions which have created policy havoc. Intra-union rivalry between the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) have further created a battle over who can exact more concessions from management.
Now, strikes in the motor manufacturing sector with threats to spread elsewhere continue this trend – and it all points away from the NDP rather than towards it.
So, the ANC now have one more and perhaps final chance to forge ahead with the NDP. Election 2014 affords the party a chance to clean house.
It can shaft and shift obstructionist caucus members at both national and provincial levels and enlist a much more supportive new cadre of public representatives ready to carry out the tough task of taking back governance from those careerists and cronyists.
The 2014 poll is much more likely to become an election about the NDP. Critical to this is Cyril Ramaphosa, whose high-level involvement in drafting the NDP makes its implementation a ‘make or break’ moment for him.
Ramaphosa will need to drive the NDP when he finally assumes the position of deputy president of the country – assuming Jacob Zuma continues to occupy the top spot.
So, for the first time since 1994, the ANC’s policy platform for the election and beyond will have to align itself with that of the NDP should the plan have any chance of success.
A strong showing by the DA in the poll will boost the NDP’s chances. But a poor ANC performance marred by any large voter stay-away or growth for Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will put the brakes on the plan.
And importantly, the drama being played out currently following the suspension of Zwelenzima Vavi and the potential of an intra-Cosatu split can also derail the NDP train.
Vavi had been seen as obstructionist towards the NDP and should the ANC fail to quell the trade union federation’s internal strife, it could face a more socialist or workerist backlash that could dash any chance of the NDP seeing the light of day.
Furthermore, the ANC moderates will need to overcome those within the alliance who still see the business sector as the enemy rather than a crucial adjunct to economic progress. Perhaps the possible demise of Vavi will be used by those pro-NDP within the alliance to forge a new and more acquiescent trade union movement.
Current political tensions might be personality driven. But there is now a critical and long-overdue need for South Africa to embrace a clear set of policies without the ideological constraints that have marred such attempts in the past.
As we enter the election campaign, at least real issues might come to the fore. Hopefully, this will be the last few months of this unfortunate stalemate which helps nobody – especially the poor.
- Fin24
*Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.
And, given the extent to which internal ANC factionalism has dominated our political and economic discourse since Mangaung, this paralysis has already been deeply embedded.
Around the world, elections increase political tensions. The fear of losing support (and even power) normally consumes so much energy on the part of the incumbents that this leaves little room for policy development or implementation.
And not wanting to alienate any fragile faction within the ruling party always puts a break on any more risky policy enactment and execution.
South Africa therefore enters the pre-2014 period in such a milieu – unable to develop its key National Development Plan (NDP) as the ruling alliance continues to grapple with personality and power-related political shenanigans.
Adopted at Mangaung, the NDP was well-positioned (warts and all) to restore effective governance to the country and in particular to turn around an ineffective state bureaucracy that had become the worst example of what cadre-deployment can do to an administration.
But no sooner was Mangaung over then the knives were out for the plan. Clearly, the strongest opposition came from the more leftist elements within Cosatu who strongly opposed any attempts to even vaguely tamper with the current labour regime.
By mid-year, the plan had become largely unhinged and in danger of drifting further away from ever being implemented.
However, there is a certain urgency in the minds of many within the ANC to rectify this. Clearly, further threats of rating agency downgrades prey on the mind of Reserve Bank governor Gill Marcus. And the last 9 months could only have been a very frustrating time for Trevor Manuel, under whose watch the plan was conceived.
For over two years, the ANC had been side-tracked by the debilitating nationalisation policy debates initiated by Julius Malema. Since Mangaung it’s been the unions which have created policy havoc. Intra-union rivalry between the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) have further created a battle over who can exact more concessions from management.
Now, strikes in the motor manufacturing sector with threats to spread elsewhere continue this trend – and it all points away from the NDP rather than towards it.
So, the ANC now have one more and perhaps final chance to forge ahead with the NDP. Election 2014 affords the party a chance to clean house.
It can shaft and shift obstructionist caucus members at both national and provincial levels and enlist a much more supportive new cadre of public representatives ready to carry out the tough task of taking back governance from those careerists and cronyists.
The 2014 poll is much more likely to become an election about the NDP. Critical to this is Cyril Ramaphosa, whose high-level involvement in drafting the NDP makes its implementation a ‘make or break’ moment for him.
Ramaphosa will need to drive the NDP when he finally assumes the position of deputy president of the country – assuming Jacob Zuma continues to occupy the top spot.
So, for the first time since 1994, the ANC’s policy platform for the election and beyond will have to align itself with that of the NDP should the plan have any chance of success.
A strong showing by the DA in the poll will boost the NDP’s chances. But a poor ANC performance marred by any large voter stay-away or growth for Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will put the brakes on the plan.
And importantly, the drama being played out currently following the suspension of Zwelenzima Vavi and the potential of an intra-Cosatu split can also derail the NDP train.
Vavi had been seen as obstructionist towards the NDP and should the ANC fail to quell the trade union federation’s internal strife, it could face a more socialist or workerist backlash that could dash any chance of the NDP seeing the light of day.
Furthermore, the ANC moderates will need to overcome those within the alliance who still see the business sector as the enemy rather than a crucial adjunct to economic progress. Perhaps the possible demise of Vavi will be used by those pro-NDP within the alliance to forge a new and more acquiescent trade union movement.
Current political tensions might be personality driven. But there is now a critical and long-overdue need for South Africa to embrace a clear set of policies without the ideological constraints that have marred such attempts in the past.
As we enter the election campaign, at least real issues might come to the fore. Hopefully, this will be the last few months of this unfortunate stalemate which helps nobody – especially the poor.
- Fin24
*Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.
