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ANC voters' conundrum

POLITICAL pundits are lining up to predict a substantial decline in support for the ANC in next year’s election.

And looking at unemployment of around 36% (including disillusioned work-seekers), a drop to rock bottom of the global competitiveness index in terms of the quality of maths and science in our schools, together with daily accounts of corruption and wastage of taxpayers' resources, most electorates worldwide would seem ready to give incumbents such as these a thrashing at the polls.

But hold on a second. The ANC has indeed provided in terms of its commitment to transform the country. And its greatest successes have been in areas likely to foster a degree of voter loyalty.

Take housing, for example. Black South Africans now own over 60% of all homes in South Africa. Within 19 years, the country has created a home-owning class that was outlawed under National Party rule.

While waiting lists are frustratingly long, the quality of construction questionable and tender irregularities persist, the linkage of the ANC to the delivery of homes is an important psychological pull to voting the party back into power.

Add a massive rollout of water and electricity, and the basics of life have been extended to more South Africans than ever before. Another reason for voters to feel more loyal.

Thirdly, poverty levels have dropped. The number of South Africans living on under $2 has fallen from 17% of the population in 2002 to just 5% in 2012.

Fourthly, black incomes are also on the rise, buoyed in part by social income grants. The safety net of pensions for 15 million South Africans is perhaps one of the most powerful magnets in the arsenal of the ANC.

This has occurred simultaneously with a precipitous rise in black LSM levels over the last decade, affording black consumers the chance to flex their discretionary spend muscle.

Furthermore, black people have taken advantage of equitable access to higher education and have increased their representation in top management jobs from 13% in 2000 to 24% last year. This follows a massive increase in the number of black university graduates entering the economy.
 
Finally, with a depressed job creation environment in the private sector, government is hiring – 40% of all job creations since 2010 have been in the government sector.

State-related wage settlements have largely outstripped those of the private sector, leaving public servants in the pound seats and less likely to rock the political boat - even if they are less than enamoured with President Jacob Zuma.

Brand loyalty

Although it’s becoming much more of a struggle for the ANC to keep the ‘struggle’ alive as a vote-catcher in the minds of the ‘born-free’ generation, the brand loyalty of liberation remains strong.

Add it to the mix of quantifiable delivery and the lure of incumbent strength and power (which has always been an aphrodisiac for South African voters) and you have yet another winning ticket. Or do you?

Ironically, it might just be that signs of real progress in the lives of black South Africans no longer define all aspects of the voters’ choice at the polls.

Younger voters are rightly worried about educational standards and job prospects. They are connected globally like never before, and they benchmark government performance using a host of criteria assembled from a wider world view.

And even though the ANC has indeed delivered enough to keep their voters coming back for more, it might just not be enough for segments of the voting body. Heightened expectations, a demand for greater delivery and a lower tolerance threshold for the excesses of government conspire to shift voters from the ruling party.

Liberation fatigue and a generational shift (of especially urban voters) seeking to break with their family also play a role in changing voter patterns. This is especially likely in an atmosphere of widespread corruption and graft, for which the ANC themselves must take sole blame.

And now there is choice. The DA governs in the Western Cape, making it an alternative power source in politics – with all the trappings of dishing out jobs and benefits. Even smaller players like the Economic Freedom Front and Agang SA working on the fringes serve to loosen the old bonds of loyalty, as did Cope in 2009.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, is the ANC itself. Electorally it might be its own worst enemy as factionalism, personality clashes and in-fighting obscure its successes. Constant sniping and bickering is likely to make for a less-than-enthusiastic election machine – especially within its troubled union component.

Next year, traditional ANC voters face a real conundrum. Do they reward the ANC for critical areas of delivery, or send it a message of dissatisfaction?

The debt of gratitude for delivery will win – but with a heavier heart than in the past.

- Fin24

*Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.  

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