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DON'T underestimate the current strike by the National Union of Metalworkers (Numsa).
This, much more than the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union's (Amcu's) platinum mine strike or Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema’s relatively good showing in the May general election, is a direct challenge to the ANC’s power.
But let us consider the economic implications first.
Let us remember that this strike follows on the heels of the crippling five-month Amcu strike which, according to economists, was largely responsible for converting an expected 1.6% economic growth into a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter of the year.
Recession could be on cards
Business Day on Tuesday reported that Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene said the expected 2.7% growth for 2014 would not be reached. Economists expect a further contraction for the second quarter, which will mean that South Africa will then officially be in a recession.
Numsa is clearly playing hardball. Whereas the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of South Africa (Seifsa), representing the employers, is offering a pay rise of 8%, Numsa has just increased its demand from 12% to 15%. This in spite of the fact that the strike – according to Seifsa – will cost the economy about R300m per day.
And then we haven’t said anything about the lost wages of the workers themselves. Amcu's members suffered terribly in this regard – some say it will take up to a decade for them to recoup their losses.
Furthermore, the strike may affect the building of two important power stations. These stations are critical to Eskom’s future capacity to supply the South African economy with electricity.
In other words, the ripple effect is spreading throughout the economy. And already the rand’s international value is suffering again, increasing the cost of imports and thereby stimulating inflation. And who suffers most from inflation? Correct - the poor.
As with the Amcu strike, the South African economy – and ordinary South Africans – will, therefore, lose hands down if the conflict is not resolved speedily.
Which begs the question: what is driving the strike?
Well, there is no doubt that poverty is a powerful motivation with many individual strikers. Afrikaans newspapers carried interviews with strikers on Tuesday morning, showing that some of them take home as little as R3 000 every month. On a human level, nobody with a heart can fail to sympathise with them.
However, one also has to stand back a few steps and try to see the wood for the trees. While it is clear that the workers deserve a rise – perhaps more than the 8% offered by the employers – it is equally clear that Numsa is not simply driven by the workers’ plight.
One of the effects of the Amcu strike was that the trade union established itself as a power not to be ignored. That it achieved this on the backs of its members is neither here nor there.
Challenge to capitalism
Numsa’s goals seem to be even more ambitious. Take into account that Numsa has broken with the ANC, and has indicated that it will establish a new socialist workers’ party later this year.
In the Daily Maverick, Ranjeni Munusamy quoted from a statement after a Numsa central committee meeting in May: “The [central committee] affirmed that there are two legs on which Numsa’s work to build the United Front would stand; gaining support for our campaigns and building our concrete support for other struggles of the working class and the poor wherever and whenever they take place.”
This clearly indicates that the strike is about more than workers’ income; it is a direct challenge to the governing ANC – and to the capitalist system as such.
In parliament and some provincial legislatures, Julius Malema’s EFF will continue to generate headlines by intemperate outbursts and boorish behaviour. But I don’t think Malema is the real challenge; his tactics may very well be self-defeating. After all, how much can he actually achieve by limiting his strategy to insulting all and sundry?
No, the real challenge is Numsa and its general secretary, Irvin Jim. If the ANC does not handle the situation wisely, the trade union and the planned socialist party may, in time, threaten its power base.
What is to be done?
Unfortunately, the government’s role in the Amcu strike was pathetic. It stood aside, and the one fluttery attempt at mediation was over almost before it started.
But it will need to do more than mediation, necessary as that may be. It will urgently have to do something to counter the simmering dissatisfaction about its inability to stimulate the economy, its general inefficiency on all governmental levels, and its notorious corruption.
A successful South Africa will take the wind out of Numsa’s sails. The question is, however, whether the ANC will be able to comply.
I have, perhaps unjustly so, my doubts. But let us see. A good beginning has been made with the sacking of several incompetent Limpopo rural mayors. Perhaps we shall be pleasantly surprised.
-Fin24
* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.
This, much more than the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union's (Amcu's) platinum mine strike or Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema’s relatively good showing in the May general election, is a direct challenge to the ANC’s power.
But let us consider the economic implications first.
Let us remember that this strike follows on the heels of the crippling five-month Amcu strike which, according to economists, was largely responsible for converting an expected 1.6% economic growth into a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter of the year.
Recession could be on cards
Business Day on Tuesday reported that Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene said the expected 2.7% growth for 2014 would not be reached. Economists expect a further contraction for the second quarter, which will mean that South Africa will then officially be in a recession.
Numsa is clearly playing hardball. Whereas the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of South Africa (Seifsa), representing the employers, is offering a pay rise of 8%, Numsa has just increased its demand from 12% to 15%. This in spite of the fact that the strike – according to Seifsa – will cost the economy about R300m per day.
And then we haven’t said anything about the lost wages of the workers themselves. Amcu's members suffered terribly in this regard – some say it will take up to a decade for them to recoup their losses.
Furthermore, the strike may affect the building of two important power stations. These stations are critical to Eskom’s future capacity to supply the South African economy with electricity.
In other words, the ripple effect is spreading throughout the economy. And already the rand’s international value is suffering again, increasing the cost of imports and thereby stimulating inflation. And who suffers most from inflation? Correct - the poor.
As with the Amcu strike, the South African economy – and ordinary South Africans – will, therefore, lose hands down if the conflict is not resolved speedily.
Which begs the question: what is driving the strike?
Well, there is no doubt that poverty is a powerful motivation with many individual strikers. Afrikaans newspapers carried interviews with strikers on Tuesday morning, showing that some of them take home as little as R3 000 every month. On a human level, nobody with a heart can fail to sympathise with them.
However, one also has to stand back a few steps and try to see the wood for the trees. While it is clear that the workers deserve a rise – perhaps more than the 8% offered by the employers – it is equally clear that Numsa is not simply driven by the workers’ plight.
One of the effects of the Amcu strike was that the trade union established itself as a power not to be ignored. That it achieved this on the backs of its members is neither here nor there.
Challenge to capitalism
Numsa’s goals seem to be even more ambitious. Take into account that Numsa has broken with the ANC, and has indicated that it will establish a new socialist workers’ party later this year.
In the Daily Maverick, Ranjeni Munusamy quoted from a statement after a Numsa central committee meeting in May: “The [central committee] affirmed that there are two legs on which Numsa’s work to build the United Front would stand; gaining support for our campaigns and building our concrete support for other struggles of the working class and the poor wherever and whenever they take place.”
This clearly indicates that the strike is about more than workers’ income; it is a direct challenge to the governing ANC – and to the capitalist system as such.
In parliament and some provincial legislatures, Julius Malema’s EFF will continue to generate headlines by intemperate outbursts and boorish behaviour. But I don’t think Malema is the real challenge; his tactics may very well be self-defeating. After all, how much can he actually achieve by limiting his strategy to insulting all and sundry?
No, the real challenge is Numsa and its general secretary, Irvin Jim. If the ANC does not handle the situation wisely, the trade union and the planned socialist party may, in time, threaten its power base.
What is to be done?
Unfortunately, the government’s role in the Amcu strike was pathetic. It stood aside, and the one fluttery attempt at mediation was over almost before it started.
But it will need to do more than mediation, necessary as that may be. It will urgently have to do something to counter the simmering dissatisfaction about its inability to stimulate the economy, its general inefficiency on all governmental levels, and its notorious corruption.
A successful South Africa will take the wind out of Numsa’s sails. The question is, however, whether the ANC will be able to comply.
I have, perhaps unjustly so, my doubts. But let us see. A good beginning has been made with the sacking of several incompetent Limpopo rural mayors. Perhaps we shall be pleasantly surprised.
-Fin24
* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.
