Johannesburg - The South African Reserve Bank's (Sarb's) leading economic indicator, which points to trends over six to 12 months, in September showed an increase from the previous month.
The indicator moved to a 17.5% year-on-year (y/y) increase in September from the 19.2% recorded in August, according to central bank data released on Monday.
The latest increase takes the indicator to an index level of 131.9, which on a trend basis is higher than the 120.9 index level in December 2009.
The country's seasonally adjusted leading economic indicator provides a guideline for economic growth for at least six months ahead.
Month-month (m/m) growth registered 0.8% from a 0.1% decline in August.
August's index was revised slightly downwards to 130.8 from 130.9.
The leading indicator had been over 120 and nearer to 130 for the whole of 2007. However, it slowed when SA went into recession in late 2008.
The coincident indicator - which moves in line with the economy - for August was reported at 142.7 from a revised 143.7 (145.9) a month before. The lagging indicator was reported at 102.1 from a revised 102.5 (104.5).
The leading indicator confirmed a few months ahead that South Africa's economic growth would slow in 2010.
The coincident indicator is an economic factor that varies directly and simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the current state of the economy. The lagging indicator changes after the economy has already begun to follow a particular trend.
The Reserve Bank uses over 200 economic time series to determine the turning points of the South African business cycle.
Using these indicators, the leading, coincident and lagging composite business cycle indices are produced that indicate the direction of the change in economic activity rather than the level of economic activity.