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TODAY in a week’s time, Scottish voters will be deciding whether Scotland is to secede from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and become an independent country.
Some opinion polls still indicate a narrow majority against secession; others show the opposite. Whatever the case, it is clear that the outcome is on a knife-edge – and, therefore, the possibility of Scotland going its own way is a serious possibility.
The question may be approached from different angles.
On one level, it fits in with similar tendencies in various European countries. In Catalonia, Spain, for instance, there is a sizeable feeling that this province, with its own ethnic identity, should become an independent country. Other examples may be seen in Corsica (part of France), as well as Flanders (Belgium).
Even where secession is not a serious option, various regions (Friesland and Limburg in the Netherlands, Brittany in France, South Tyrol in Italy, Bavaria in Germany, etc) emphasise their own uniqueness.
Lure of history
Many Scottish, of course, still retain the memory of heroes like Robert the Bruce and William Wallace, valiantly battling the English imperialists. But in the end, they were pulled willy-nilly into a union with England when Scottish King James VI inherited the English throne.
However, Scotland remained an independent country until 1707 when both the Scottish and English parliaments approved the Act of Union, which brought both together in a single country.
The successor to this merger is known today as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. In 1997 the then Labour government of Tony Blair granted self-rule to Scotland and Wales, and for the last decade the Scottish National Party (SNP) – in favour of independence – has been ruling in Edinburgh, appealing to the Scots’ ethnic pride and nationalism to stimulate support for secession.
The opinion polls show an interesting trend in this regard. The SNP’s emotional message appears to touch a nerve, especially among the younger voters. The older ones, who have only known Scotland as part of the UK, are more susceptible to economic issues.
And it is indeed a fact that an independent Scotland will have to overcome several severe economic challenges.
For instance, the pound lost 1.4% of its value against the dollar and euro over a period of three days after one poll showed that the Yes-voters (for independence, in other words) were for the first time in a majority.
Several captains of industry warned against secession, and the main British party leaders – Prime Minister David Cameron, Labour leader Ed Milliband and LibDem leader Nick Clegg - put aside their party political rivalry and flew north in a desperate attempt to convince the Scots to stay in the UK.
Thrown out into the cold?
Fact is that independence will have several economic drawbacks. It is true that Scotland is floating quite comfortably on its oil and natural gas revenues – for the moment. These supplies are, however, running rather low, and will probably not be able to provide security for much more than another decade.
Alex Salmond, Scottish First Minister, has also promised his voters a monetary union with the remaining part of the UK, retaining the pound and even Scottish membership of the European Union. However, the Scots are running a real risk of being thrown out into the cold.
The British are not very keen on an independent Scotland remaining in a monetary union, and Cameron has threatened to veto this. In Brussels, the EU leaders are also not prepared to welcome an independent Scotland simply because it used to be part of the UK. It will have to fulfil all the stringent conditions put to any prospective new member, and this may take far more than a decade.
There is also the small matter of dividing the spoils. A referendum decision in favour of a free Scotland will not mean that the territory will be independent next week.
Putin's pleasure
It simply endorses the Edinburgh government to start negotiations with Westminster for a divorce. And, as with many divorces, this one will take tough and acrimonious negotiations, with Edinburgh wanting to take as much as they can, and London holding on for dear life to all they can.
Cameron has now promised to devolve even more powers to the Scots, should they decide to remain in the UK. Coming this late in the process, this smacks of desperation – and has immediately been derided as such by the likes of Salmond.
These economic issues apparently do make an impression on the older voters, but not so much the younger ones.
Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that a Scottish secession will be a major blow to the British Isles. A United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland still commands a modicum of respect. Will this be the case with a Disunited Kingdom of Little Britain, Wales and Northern Ireland?
There is one man who will smile derisively if the UK disintegrates. His name is Vladimir Putin. Anything weakening the Western alliance will be to his advantage.
- Fin24
